The Future: six drivers of global change Part 78

305 the dangerous journey across to the Canaries

"Canaries Migrant Surge Tops 1,400," BBC, September 4, 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/5310412.stm.

306 one meter or less higher than the current sea level

"Sea Levels May Rise by as Much as One Meter Before the End of the Century," ScienceDaily, June 10, 2012.

307 abandon the places they call home

Hugo Ahlenius, "Population, Area and Economy Affected by 1m Sea Level Rise," UNEP/GRID-Arendal, 2007, http://www.grida.no/graphicslib/detail/population-area-and-economy-affected-by-a-1-m-sea-level-rise-global-and-regional-estimates-based-on-todays-situation_d4fe.

308 rate of less than one half of one percent per year

WorldWatch Inst.i.tute, "World Population, Agriculture, and Malnutrition," 2011.

309 approximately 2.5 centimeters every 500 years

Pete Miller and Laura Westra, Just Ecological Integrity: The Ethics of Maintaining a Planetary Life (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2002), p. 124.

310 productivity on almost one third of the arable land on Earth

Jims Vincent Capuno, "Soil Erosion: The Country's Unseen Enemy," Edge Davao, July 11, 2011, http://www.edgedavao.net/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4801:soil-erosion-the-countrys-unseen-enemy&catid=51:on-the-cover&Itemid=83.

311 ten times faster than it can be replenished

Tom Paulson, "The Lowdown on Topsoil: It's Disappearing," Seattle Post-Intelligencer, January 21, 2008.

312 erodible soils down the steep slopes of its terrain

Lester Brown, "Civilization's Founding Eroding," September 28, 2010, http://www.earth-policy.org/book_bytes/2010/pb4ch02_ss2.

313 have many experts beginning to get very worried

"Groundwater Depletion Rate Accelerating Worldwide," ScienceDaily, September 23, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100923142503.htm.

314 many aquifers are now falling several meters per year

"No Easy Fix: Simply Using More of Everything to Produce More Food Will Not Work," Economist, February 24, 2011.

315 "costs and the benefits in separate accounts for comparison"

Jorgen Randers, 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years (White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green, 2012), p. 75.

316 "practical confusion between income and capital"

R. H. Parker and G. C. Harcourt, Readings in the Concept and Measurement of Income (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1969), p. 81.

317 holds true for nations and for the world as a whole

Kevin Holmes, The Concept of Income: A Multi-disciplinary a.n.a.lysis (Amsterdam: IBFD, 2001), p. 109.

318 "system of environmental-economic accounts"

Janez Potonik, "Our Natural Capital Is Endangered," European Union press release, June 20, 2012.

319 argument is often contingent on oversimplification

Simon Kuznets, National Income 19291932, Report to the U.S. Senate, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session (Was.h.i.+ngton, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1934), www.nber.org/chapters/c2258.pdf.

320 "the center of conflict of opposing social groups"

Ibid.

321 "farmers did not get enough scientific guidance"