An Inquiry into the Permanent Causes of the Decline and Fall of Powerful and Wealthy Nations Part 37

The invention and industry of this country have been most wonderfully increased by the necessity of exertion, under the protection of good laws, which rendered property secure. But we trust too much to our resources, and, like men in health and vigour, are the most likely to injure our const.i.tution.

The most part of the arts, in point of manufacturing, seem to have come to nearly the last degree of perfection, so far as abbreviation of labour can carry them. [end of page #229]

The division of labour, and the modes of working in the iron and metal branches, have not of late been in any material degree improved in our towns, the most famous for them; and as to any particular gift of bringing things to perfection, or reducing prices, it does not appear to be confined to England. Watches and fire-arms are two of the most ingenious and nice branches of metal manufactures; yet, at Liege, the latter is carried to greater perfection than at Birmingham, and London and Lancas.h.i.+re are outdone by Switzerland, in the former. Those, indeed, are not manufactures of which the taste or form is constantly altering; but they are a proof of the ability to work with equal advantage, both as to quality and price, with the manufacturers of this country.

The next great branches are the weaving. For silks, France has always had the advantage of us; and our fine woollen cloths have never equalled those of Louvier and Sedan for quality, although, in point of price, they have the advantage.

In linens, we enjoy no particular pre-eminence; and, in the American market, we are beginning to be undersold by those of Silesia. For a second quality of woollen cloth, and for the manufacture of cotton, in all its branches, we still have the superiority; but our great advantage, the cause of the general preference to our manufactures is the long credit we give, which, if it should ever cease to be practicable, would ruin not one, but all our manufactures, nearly at a stroke.

It is very natural and very well for Englishmen, who have never been out of their own country, to ascribe to superiority of quality, (and inferiority of price is the same thing,) the great success they have in selling their goods in foreign countries; but such as have had an opportunity to see how it really is, know the contrary; and those who have not, may know it by observing who are the individuals in any branch of business at home that do the most, and they will find it always to be those who have the power of giving the longest credit. It is true that, in the course of time, and by struggling hard, those who have little means of extending their business at first, do it by degrees; but, until they do, they never can, in point of quant.i.ty, rival those who give long credit.

[end of page #230]

In the inability of other nations to give equal length of credit, consists our princ.i.p.al advantage; but we have seen, by the vicissitudes of ancient nations, that the wants of others, or their being behindhand, are but a very insecure tenure for the prosperity of any nation.

The exportation of Britain was but inconsiderable at the beginning of last =sic= century, or about one-ninth of what it was two years ago.{187} Previous to the American war, it gradually increased to about three times what it was in the year 1700; that is, in seventy-five years. The progression was pretty regular till the year 1750, when it had risen to nearly double; but, in twenty-five years after, it increased as much as it had in fifty years before. The American war threw it back forty years, but it soon got up again to where it probably would have been, had the American war not intervened; it, however, rose beyond any thing that had ever been seen. It doubled in less than ten years; and, from this, we are led to conclude, that the taxes had not then begun to hurt national industry. But we shall see the reason, for the great increase was not owing so much to any cause inherent in this nation, as to the absolute impossibility of other nations continuing their commerce. We had got all the East and West India trade of the French and Dutch, and America had again become our greatest customer for British manufactures.

Capital that could be removed was, in a manner, banished from the continent of Europe, and had taken refuge in England, and a great extent of the continent had been desolated with war. We are not, however, to expect this amazing export trade to continue; indeed, it has already fallen, in one year, as much as it ever rose in any three years; it fell fifteen millions in one year. The taxes may have operated much against our prosperity, without our knowing it, in a crisis of this sort, though they did not absolutely counteract the favourable effect produced by other causes.

The commerce of the American states, which were, (like England,) out of the vortex of danger, and secure, increased in fully as rapid

{187} In 1802, the exports amounted to 45,500,000 L. In 1702 to 5,500,000 L.

[end of page #231]

a manner as ours, and fell off in the same way. We must not then, consider as durable, or owing to ourselves, circ.u.mstances that arose out of the general and temporary situation of other nations.

It has been said in the general chapter on taxation, and again repeated in that on national debt, that both the one and the other operate, for a certain time, in augmenting the industry and wealth of a country, but that there is some point at which they begin to have a contrary effect; that point, however, being dependent on a variety of circ.u.mstances, is not a fixed one, it cannot be discovered by investigation before the time, but it may by symptoms and signs that become visible soon after.

It is a sign that a nation has pa.s.sed the point at which taxes cease to be a spur to industry, when the duties on consumption, or optional duties, which one may avoid paying, by not using the article taxed, become less productive than formerly, and when it is found necessary to lay taxes on land, houses, and such sort of property as can be made to pay, independent of the will of the proprietor.

When taxes are laid upon property, not on consumption, it is to be supposed the latter can bear no more. Taxes on property are forced taxes; on consnmption =sic=, they are generally, to a certain degree, voluntary, though not always so.

The augmentation of wealth has, in this country, been great, but it has never been regular or uninterrupted; that of taxation has, on the contrary, been uninterrupted, and this is better seen from the chart than from any thing that can be said. There can be no doubt that, though hitherto our increasing prosperity has been so great as to counteract the effect of heavy taxation, yet that the same thing cannot be expected to continue long. How long it may continue, or whether it has not already ceased, or is on the point of ceasing, is uncertain; but there is nothing more positive, than that, if taxes increase, they must, in process of time, crush industry, and, therefore, at all events, they should be kept as low as possible.

The whole income of the country is estimated only at 150,000,000 L.

The taxes to the state amount to 40,000,000 L. and those for the maintenance of the poor to 5,500,000 L. But this is the mere money ac-[end of page #232] count, without estimating loss of time, trouble, and inconvenience; so that it may fairly and reasonably be put down at one-third of the whole revenue or income of the individuals, yet the complaints are not so loud, and the clamour is not so great, as when they did not amount to one-twentieth of that revenue. This may, however, be accounted for.

One-third part of revenue is derived from the state itself, so that there are but two-thirds remain independent of it. The habit of bearing burthens, and experience of the inutility of complaint, are likewise reasons for acquiescence; besides these, we cannot but all be sensible, that complaints were very violent when there was little occasion for them. We cannot deny, that the nation has been prospering for a hundred years, while the cry of ruin has been resounding perpetually in every corner; it is therefore natural to mistrust our fears, and sit in silence, waiting the event.

The portion of our expense that consists in interest of money, on which no economy can operate, is so great, that it prevents any hope of much diminution from economy; and, indeed, in the time of peace, no economy that could be practised, more than what has commonly been done, would diminish our burthens one-fiftieth part. Even that would be very difficult, perhaps impracticable; for our free revenue, in time of peace, has not augmented in proportion to the diminution of the value of money; so that, in 1792, the expenses of the state were comparatively less than in the reign of Queen Anne.

Economy, then, is not the mode in which we must seek relief in time of peace. To carry on war in a less expensive manner in future, and take a solid and effectual method of reducing our debts, are the means, both of which are treated of in their proper place.

The modes of relief then, are three:

1. Economy in war.

2. A solid and fair method of reducing the present interest.

3. Attention, to render the system of taxation as little troublesome, and as fair and equal as possible.

[end of page #233]

CHAP. IV.

_Of the National Debt and Sinking Fund.--Advantages and Disadvantages of both.--Errors committed in calculating their Effects.--Causes of Error.--Mode proposed for preventing future Increase_.

In no circ.u.mstance does the British empire differ so widely from all nations recorded in history, or from any now in existence, as with regard to the national debt.

Not only the invention of contracting debt to carry on war is but of recent origin, but no nation has ever carried it to near the extent that it has arrived at in England. The Italian states, in which this mode was first practised, never had the means of carrying it very far. In Spain, France, and Holland, national debt met with obstacles that arrested its progress long before it arrived at the pitch to which it has now come in this country.

The interest of the debt is above thrice the free revenue of the country, in time of peace, as that revenue was, previous to hostilities in 1793.

Whenever any operation is begun, the result of which is not known, owing to its being new, but which is in itself of great importance; the anxiety it occasions must be great, and, generally, the alarm is more than proportioned to the danger. If ever this truth was exemplified in any thing, it has been with regard to the national debt of England, which has been a continual object of terror since its first creation; not a public terror, merely amongst the ignorant, but the most profound and enlightened statesmen. Calculators, and writers on political economy, have served to augment the uneasiness by their predictions of a fatal termination.

While the debt has been augmenting with great rapidity, the wealth and resources of the nation have, at least, augmented equally fast, and the matter of fact has given the lie to all the forebodings of those who [end of page #234] occasioned the alarm. This very extraordinary circ.u.mstance merits an investigation.

It unfortunately happens, that, where people are deeply interested in a subject, they form their opinion before they begin to examine and investigate, and consequently the mind commences with a bias, and acts under its influence, the consequence of which is, that the conclusion is not so accurate as it otherwise would be. Not that, in calculating with figures, the disposition of the mind can make an unit of difference, the question being once fairly stated; but the previous impression on the mind tends to prevent the fair statement of the question.

That an uninterrupted practice of borrowing must end in an inability to pay is a self-evident axiom. It is not a matter that admits of dispute; but to fix the point where the inability will commence is a problem to resolve of a very difficult nature; it is indeed a problem, the re- solution =sic= of which depends upon some circ.u.mstances that cannot be ascertained. There are, it is true, certain fixed principles; but there are some points also that depend on events entirely unconnected with the debt, and, in themselves, uncertain. Two great considerations, that operate powerfully, have been omitted by most writers on this subject.

The first, is the increased energy of human exertion, under an increased operation of necessity; the second, is the effect that the depreciation of money has, on lessening the apparent burthen occasioned by the interest of the debt. That these two causes, which have not been taken into account, have rendered the calculations erroneous, there is not a doubt; and how far they may still continue to operate is, at this time, as uncertain as ever; but they ought not to be considered as of operation beyond a certain unknown point, else the practice of contracting debt would be capable of infinite extension, which is impossible.

But the augmentation of the debt itself is not the only circ.u.mstance that excites attention, as intimately connected with the fate of this nation.

The increasing wealth and prosperity of the nation, under the heavy load of taxes, of which the debt is the princ.i.p.al occasion, is as much a matter of surprize as the ultimate result is an object of anxiety.

So long, however, as the nation is not actually born =sic= down by the [end of page #235] weight of taxes, its wealth must increase; and, what is considered as a very strange phenomenon, is only the natural and necessary consequence of increased taxation.

When men inhabit and cultivate land of their own, they are under no necessity of creating any greater value than they consume; but, when they pay RENT and TAXES, they are laid under a necessity of producing enough to supply their own wants, and to pay the rent and taxes to which they are subject. The same is the case with regard to manufacturers in every line of business, for though they do not, perhaps, consume any part of what they produce, (what comes to the same thing is that,) they are obliged to produce as much as will exchange, or sell, for all they want to consume, over and above paying their rent and taxes.

Without rent and taxes there are only three things that excite the exertion of man:--Necessity, arising from natural wants; a love of pleasure; or, a love of acc.u.mulation.

When a man labours no more than for his mere natural necessities, he is a poor man, in the usual acceptation =sic= of the word, that is, he has no wealth; {188} and a nation, peopled with such men, would justly be called a poor nation. When a man labours for nothing more than what he expends on pleasure, or to gratify his taste and pa.s.sions, it is still the same, he consumes what he creates, and there is an end of the matter; and, whether he creates much or little, as his consumption is regulated by it, no difference is made to society; but, when rent and taxes const.i.tute a part of the price of every commodity, the consumption of every man, whether he pays any taxes directly or not, himself, is attended with an increase to the revenues of those who receive the rent and taxes, and obliges him to create more than he consumes.

{188} Some philosophers call a man rich, who wants little, and has that little; they are quite right, in their way, but that does not apply here. Perhaps, according to their definition, the Lazzaroni of Naples are richer than the merchants of London; and, a man who is contented in a parish work-house, is, beyond dispute, rich; to say that such a man is wealthy would be absurd, because wealth, with writers on political economy, implies being possessed of real tangible property.

[end of page #236]

It arises from this, that the aggregate wealth of a people increases with rent and taxes; for, where there are neither, the desire of acc.u.mulation is the only thing that increases wealth. {189}