50 Popular Beliefs That People Think Are True Part 13

Hitchens, Christopher, ed. The Portable Atheist: Essential Readings for the Nonbeliever. New York: Da Capo Press, 2007.

The Bermuda Triangle is a manufactured mystery from start to finish.

-Terrence Hines, Pseudoscience and the Paranormal The real mystery is how the Bermuda Triangle became a mystery.

-Robert Todd Carroll, The Skeptic's Dictionary After growing up on the eastern coast of south Florida and then living twenty years of my adult life in the Caribbean, I know that the ocean can be as dangerous as it can be beautiful. Bad things often happen in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea. People get lost. People vanish. People die. Incredibly powerful storms routinely wreak havoc in the seas and on coastal communities. Deadly creatures roam free and even currents just offsh.o.r.e sometimes kill weekend swimmers on sunny afternoons.

In 1992, I explored the rubble that was Homestead, Florida, and interviewed many of the newly homeless after category 5 Hurricane Andrew struck. I saw large boats stranded high and dry in fields far from the sea. I saw an eighteen-wheel truck left upside down by winds. In the Cayman Islands I watched a community mourn fishermen who went out to sea and were never heard from again. I've also seen waves taller than my house smash into land on a warm day with clear skies. It should be no surprise to anyone that things can and do go tragically wrong on the water. Not every s.h.i.+p and plane that travels over the ocean reaches its destinations as planned. If nothing unexpected and unfortunate ever happened out there, then we would have a real mystery.

During two decades spent swimming, snorkeling, diving, beachcombing, and working as a journalist in the Caribbean, I developed a heightened appreciation for how dangerous the ocean can be. Twice I even found myself in situations where I could have ended up a "missing at sea" statistic. While snorkeling one early morning just outside the reef along a lonely stretch of beach I had a face-to-face encounter with a seven-foot bull shark. It probably was attracted to the area by blood in the water from nearby spear fishermen and was only looking me over to see if I was towing a string of fish it could steal. I know that I'm more likely to be struck by lightning than eaten by a shark, but statistics offer little a.s.surance when one is less than ten feet away from a shark and too far from sh.o.r.e for a quick escape. I felt virtually helpless-and was. Furthermore, watching National Geographic and Discovery Channel shark doc.u.mentaries had not prepared me for the stunning size and power of this creature. Seven feet (an honest estimate, taking into account the way in which fear and water magnify objects) may not sound so big, but up close the shark seemed like a blue whale to me. Its rows of misaligned teeth, muscular bulk, and the way it sliced through the water sent me into a state of near panic. I have never had an irrational fear of sharks, but this was primal; my brain and my body went into full fight-or-flight mode. After a face-off that felt like forever and a brief game of peekaboo around a coral head, the shark surged away with a flick of its tail and faded into the deep. The encounter left me trembling and grateful to be alive.

On another occasion I ignored high winds and attempted a short but risky trip between two islands in a small inflatable boat. I grossly underestimated the strength of both the winds and the currents and my little boat rapidly gained speed-toward the open sea. What was supposed to be a brief crossing turned into a serious threat to my life. I was very fit at the time but struggled to make progress against the elements. With each stroke I fought back panic, fully aware that I could end up lost at sea. Swimming for sh.o.r.e was an option, of course, but it would mean abandoning the boat and all the supplies in it. It would also be a very long and difficult swim. I dug deep and paddled for what seemed like eternity before finally reaching sh.o.r.e, where I flopped down on the sand, exhausted. Memories like these left me with no doubt about the ever-present dangers of the ocean. Twice, on a sunny day and in sight of sh.o.r.e, I might have ended up missing at sea, another mystery open to speculation.

The area known as the Bermuda Triangle is fully capable of swallowing up the occasional s.h.i.+p or plane without the aid of anything supernatural or paranormal. This is why I find the wild claims and stories of the Bermuda Triangle not just unproven, but unnecessary as well. The beautiful but indifferent ocean sometimes kills the unskilled, the unprepared, and the just plain unlucky. That's the reality. Yes, boats, planes, and people go missing in a vast area that has a large volume of traffic. What's unusual about that? Why in the world would anyone think an explanation involving magic, Atlantis, extraterrestrials, black holes, or interdimensional time s.h.i.+fts are required? But some people do. However, the Bermuda Triangle may be one of the safest places in the world. That is what the evidence suggests. It turns out that the accident rate is actually lower there than in surrounding areas! For this reason, skeptic and science historian Michael Shermer suggests it might make more sense to call the area the "Non-Bermuda Triangle."1 The Bermuda Triangle, or Devil's Triangle as it is also known, is a cla.s.sic case of how "nothing unusual" can be embellished and sold as "something very unusual." In figuring out the Bermuda Triangle, it helps to know something about the origin of the claim. The source is telling. The first use of the name for a specific triangular region that claims s.h.i.+ps and planes by some mysterious means is widely believed to be an article in a 1960s pulp magazine. More than anything, Vincent Gaddis's story, "The Deadly Bermuda Triangle," in the February 1964 issue of Argosy magazine seems to have launched the myth that continues to tread water against all reason. Argosy would never be confused with National Geographic or New Scientist. It was a magazine that published fiction and sensationalized stories meant to appeal to adventure-minded young men. The late Gaddis was also the author of the books Gold Rush Ghosts and Wide World of Magic. He was not a scientist nor was he an expert on marine safety or marine history. None of this is meant to label Gaddis a con man or condemn Argosy for trying to publish interesting and fun stories that were loose with the truth. However, I think it's important to be aware of the original source because I have encountered people who are under the false impression that the Bermuda Triangle claim is somehow rooted in science, supported by scientists, and was/is endorsed by the US Navy and Coast Guard. None of that is true. The Bermuda Triangle myth was born out of imagination and has been kept alive all these years by sloppy reporting, exaggerations, and misrepresentation of facts-also known as lies.

If Gaddis and his Argosy article created a spark, writer Charles Berlitz fanned the flames to create a bonfire with his 1974 "nonfiction" bestseller, The Bermuda Triangle. It sold millions of copies and probably did more than anything else to entrench this weird claim into popular culture. I believe there is one primary reason the myth continues to appeal to so many people: great stories. The Bermuda Triangle was built not on statistics and evidence but on creepy stories of vanis.h.i.+ng planes, missing people, strange sights in the skies, and mysterious s.h.i.+ps being found adrift with no crews aboard. We are all suckers for a good tale. Thousands of years before films and novels, there was the campfire. Humans have always enjoyed sharing stories with each other. They are the foundation of religions, cultures, nations, and families. They hook us and set us up to learn and retain information-good or bad. So it should be no surprise that many people find the tale of Flight 19 irresistible.

THE FATAL JOURNEY OF FLIGHT 19.

December 5, 1945. Flight 19, a group of five US Navy Avenger torpedo bombers based at Fort Lauderdale Naval Air Station vanished without a trace in ideal weather during daylight hours while on a routine training exercise. A frantic transmission from the pilots was received by the control tower back in Florida: "Everything is wrong...strange...we can't be sure of any direction.... Even the ocean doesn't look as it should!" Then silence-forever. Their fatal mistake had been to fly into the deadly and unforgiving Bermuda Triangle. Adding to the tragedy, a rescue plane sent to search for them disappeared as well. Despite an intensive search, no trace has ever been found of the planes. After an official investigation, one Navy officer said it was if the planes had "flown off to Mars."

Now that's the kind of story that sticks and gives a myth legs. But is it accurate? Fortunately, librarian and Bermuda Triangle skeptic Larry Kusche compiled credible research that suggests far more reasonable explanations for what may have happened to many of the s.h.i.+ps and planes that went missing. His book, The Bermuda Triangle Mystery-Solved is fun to read and does a very effective job of dismantling the myth, piece by piece. Kusche conducted a detailed investigation of Flight 19, for example, and found numerous problems with the popular version of this story that has inspired so many Bermuda Triangle believers.

Kusche believes-just as the US Navy does-that Flight 19 simply got lost and the planes crashed into the sea and sank. The rescue plane that followed, a Martin PBM Mariner, blew up, probably due to a problem with the fuel system, something that model had a notorious reputation for. Kusche reveals that much of the popular version of the Flight 19 story is exaggerated, twisted, or entirely made up out of thin air. For example, there is no record in the transcripts or testimonies by navy personnel of dramatic radio transmissions from the pilots describing strange environmental conditions. In fact, transcripts of the radio transmissions read pretty much like one would expect from a lost group of planes and nothing more. Kusche points out that the flight's leader, Lieutenant Charles C. Taylor, had recently transferred to Florida and was not yet familiar with the area. And while Taylor was experienced, the other four pilots were not.2 One thing that seems to add to the legend is that five planes vanished rather than just one. This is not as strange or unlikely as it might seem, however. Flight 19 was lost and the pilots would have made every effort to stay together. Therefore they all would have run out of fuel at approximately the same time and ditched in the same general area. Kusche also found that the weather was not as ideal as it is almost always described in Bermuda Triangle lore. "Although [the weather] had been fair when they took off, it rapidly deteriorated," explains Kusche. "Search planes reported extreme turbulence and unsafe flying conditions, and one s.h.i.+p in the area reported 'high winds and tremendous seas.'" After flying around lost for some four hours, Kusche says most likely the Avengers ran out of fuel and went down somewhere in the Atlantic. Tragic yes, but nothing so odd given the fact that they were lost. Kusche adds: "Flight 19 was not a group of experienced pilots touching down on a calm sea in the middle of a sunny afternoon-it was one disoriented instructor and four student pilots attempting to ditch at sea on a dark and stormy night. It was a hopeless situation."3 Kusche also points out that, contrary to the myth, the US Navy Board of Investigation that looked into the incident was not "baffled" by it as is so often claimed by Triangle believers. The board's opinion after considering all the facts was that Flight 19 "made forced landings in darkness at sea east of the Florida peninsula" and that the conditions were "rough and unfavorable for a water landing."4 There is nothing about this event that should have led anyone to imagine that paranormal forces are behind it.

While the story of Flight 19 is the most famous Bermuda Triangle tale, there are many more. Collectively they seem to make the case that something must be happening in the Triangle. Where there's smoke there's fire, right? One that often comes up is the disappearance of Joshua Sloc.u.m, one of history's great seamen. I interviewed one of his great grandsons in the early 1990s and became very interested in Sloc.u.m's story. The New England captain gained international fame as the first person to sail around the world alone. He did it in the 1890s aboard the thirty-six-foot Spray and wrote, Sailing Alone around the World, an entertaining book about the adventure. In 1909, however, the aging Sloc.u.m sailed for the Caribbean and was never heard from again. At the time, it was believed that he most likely had been run down at night by a freighter, or perhaps the Spray capsized in rough seas and he drowned. Only many decades later would his name be attached to the Bermuda Triangle. When Triangle believers tell the Sloc.u.m story today, it is sure to include emphasis upon his sailing skill: "He was too smart to have made a mistake at sea," goes the reasoning. "Something very mysterious must have happened to him." This is, of course, preposterous. Having elite skill at something does not make one infallible or invulnerable. If it did, Formula One racecar drivers and fighter pilots would never crash. And Tony Hawk would never need to wear a helmet and kneepads when he skateboards. But he does.

WHERE IS IT?.

By the way, where exactly is the Bermuda Triangle anyway? It's a basic question, but the answer depends on whom you ask. No official Triangle boundaries have ever been designated by any person or organization with relevant credentials. There are no official military or government maps with the Bermuda Triangle marked on them. The most popular version tossed around today is close to the one popularized by the 1964 Argosy article. That triangle is formed by drawing a line from somewhere in south Florida, up to Bermuda, down to Puerto Rico, and then back to Florida. It should be not be surprising that there is ambiguity, however, because the entire claim is made up. Anyone can draw boundaries anywhere they want. Some believers claim that the danger zone extends down to cover the entire Caribbean Sea and west into the Gulf of Mexico. Yikes! According to those boundaries, I lived most of my entire life inside the Bermuda Triangle! I remember losing my car keys once, but apart from that mysterious incident, I guess I was lucky. Still others say the Triangle is nebulous and specific borders can't be drawn. That's convenient; let's just agree that every missing plane and s.h.i.+p anywhere should be considered a victim of the Bermuda Triangle. Don't laugh, that is precisely what Triangle believers have done in many cases. Skeptic Kusche points out that blame for Triangle vanis.h.i.+ngs has been given broadly and with little restraint. "If all the locations of 'Bermuda Triangle incidents' were plotted on a globe it would be found that they had taken place in an area that included the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and most of the North Atlantic."5 He also points out that many missing s.h.i.+ps and planes should not be a.s.sumed to have been lost in the Triangle just because their course may have taken them through it. They were on long journeys and could have gone down outside the Triangle.

While working his way through numerous Bermuda Triangle stories, Kusche made a surprising discovery: "My research, which began as an attempt to find as much information as possible about the Bermuda Triangle, had an unexpected result. After examining all the evidence, I have reached the following conclusion: there is no theory that solves the mystery. It is no more logical to try to find a common cause for all the disappearances in the Triangle than, for example, to try to find one cause for all automobile accidents in Arizona. By aban-doning the search for an overall theory and investigating each incident independently, the mystery began to unravel."6 For years, Kusche and other skeptics have made clear arguments against the Bermuda Triangle claim. The following is a compilation of key reasons why the myth has managed to thrive all these years:7 Many of the incidents occurred late in the day or at night, which delayed visual searches and made it more unlikely to find debris.

Many cases were not mysteries at all in light of known facts. For example, it is not mysterious to find a s.h.i.+p at sea without a crew soon after a hurricane struck the port where that s.h.i.+p had been moored.

The incidents that are still unsolved remain so because there is insufficient evidence-not surprising considering that debris usually sinks at sea. The absence of evidence, however, does not justify reaching for the most unlikely explanations of all, such as aliens, black holes, and so on.

Vehicles and people go missing on sea and on land. It happens everywhere in the world.

Some missing vessel stories that are credited to the Bermuda Triangle did not happen there. Kusche describes the case of the Freya, for example, that left port in western Mexico, had troubles, and was discovered in the Pacific Ocean.

Some planes and s.h.i.+ps that went missing pa.s.sed through the Triangle, but this does not justify claims that they went down there.

Many incidents were not considered mysterious at all when they occurred, but many years later were described that way by writers promoting the Triangle myth.

The weather was bad in many incidents, but often this is omitted or even contradicted in Triangle tales. Kusche also found that key information that points to an obvious likely explanation is often left out.

It should be clear by now that the Bermuda Triangle "mystery" does not hold up to scrutiny. It relies on exaggerated stories that omit key information and inject outright fabrications. Even if every story was factual-and actually took place inside some agreed-upon area called the Bermuda Triangle-there is still a problem. Pointing to a list of missing s.h.i.+ps and planes in a vast expanse of water and then concluding that there must be some sinister paranormal reason behind it all can't be justified. s.h.i.+ps and planes go missing for natural and mostly well-understood reasons. If someone wants to make the claim that supernatural or paranormal forces are behind it, then he is obligated to prove it.

Still not convinced that there is nothing magical and sinister going down in the big triangle? Then how about the simple fact that the United States Navy-an organization that knows a lot about oceans, s.h.i.+ps, and flying over water-thoroughly rejects the Bermuda Triangle claim. The navy does not believe in it or worry about it in the slightest, even as it operates multimillion-dollar s.h.i.+ps, aircraft, and submarines, and sends thousands of sailors into the Bermuda Triangle every year.7 But maybe the navy is too concerned with war and national defense to notice paranormal forces working against freight s.h.i.+ps and weekend boaters. Therefore, to be thorough, I thought I should check with the people who do spend a lot of time specifically thinking about the safety of cargo s.h.i.+ps and weekend boaters. I phoned the Miami, Florida, office of the US Coast Guard and asked if their organization has any concerns about unusual phenomena occurring in the Bermuda Triangle. "No," was the concise answer provided by a polite lieutenant who also referred me to the official US Coast Guard statement on the matter: The Coast Guard does not recognize the existence of the so-called Bermuda Triangle as a geographic area of specific hazard to s.h.i.+ps or planes. In a review of many aircraft and vessel losses in the area over the years, there has been nothing discovered that would indicate that casualties were the result of anything other than physical causes. No extraordinary factors have ever been identified.8 It seems simple enough, if the US Navy and US Coast Guard don't believe in the Bermuda Triangle, why should anyone?

GO DEEPER...

Earl, Sylvia, and Linda K. Glover. Ocean: An Ill.u.s.trated Atlas. Was.h.i.+ngton, DC: National Geographic, 2008.

Kusche, Larry. The Bermuda Triangle Mystery-Solved. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books, 1995.

Sloc.u.m, Joshua. Sailing Alone around the World. Memphis, TN: General Books, 2010.

You can't prove that aliens are visiting Earth by pointing to government secrecy. That establishes nothing.

-Seth Shostak, senior astronomer at the SETI Inst.i.tute According to many UFO believers, a large area of land in southern Nevada is home to some very unusual activities involving extraterrestrials and the United States government. Some say debris and bodies from the alleged 1947 crash at Roswell, New Mexico, are kept there. Some believe the US military is reverse engineering alien s.p.a.cecraft there. Many people claim to have seen alien s.p.a.cecraft flying in the area. Also known by the names Paradise Ranch and Groom Lake, it is familiar to most by its now-legendary name, "Area 51." Although it's less than ninety miles from Las Vegas, Area 51 may as well be on far side of the Moon given all the secrecy and weird rumors surrounding it. The base is off-limits to the public and constantly guarded. Nonetheless, the US government has gone on record admitting that it is a facility where the US military and CIA develop and test new aircraft and new weapons systems. But that explanation has not satisfied many people who focus their UFO hopes and fears on this one specific air base.

Before considering whether or not aliens are on ice and flying saucers are housed in hangers at Area 51, it's important to understand that weird and mysterious flying vehicles made by humans are known to have been developed and flown there. This is well doc.u.mented and widely known. For example, the U-2, A-12, and SR-71 jets were developed in extreme secrecy at least in part at Area 51. These reconnaissance planes flew at various times in the 1950s through the 1990s and were very different from conventional aircraft in both design and function. The SR-71 Blackbird was capable of Mach 3.3 speed (over 2,000 mph) and could operate at 85,000 feet. Even today, long after retirement, it looks like it belongs more on the set of the TV show Battlestar Galactica than on display in air and s.p.a.ce museums as a relic of the Cold War. The F-117 Nighthawk and B-2 Spirit bomber were also secretly developed and test flown at Area 51. These revolutionary stealth planes still have a futuristic look to them more than two decades after their public debut. The F-117 was like nothing seen before in the history of aviation. Its swept wings, weird boxlike structure, tailless body, hybrid rudder-elevator design, and sharp angles could easily lead imaginations astray. The big B-2 bomber with its bat-wing design looks like it was straight out of a Batman comic book-or from another world. I saw one on the ground at an air show and I've seen video of one in flight. At certain angles the B-2 looks exactly like-surprise-the stereotypical flying saucer from outer s.p.a.ce. Imagine what someone who happened to see one of these aircraft flying at night in the 1970s might have thought. An untrained and unexpecting person might easily a.s.sume that it was an alien s.p.a.cecraft. The same probably still holds true today. Given the large sums of money poured into military attack and reconnaissance aircraft, it's safe to a.s.sume that much of whatever the US Air Force and others are up to out in the Nevada desert would surprise the average person. We, the public, are probably twenty years or more behind when it comes to knowing what's buzzing around above our heads. Unfortunately, however, the reasonable idea that strange sightings near a secret military base are probably nothing more than secret military testing does not satisfy the cravings and suspicions of the more enthusiastic students of Area 51.

According to believers, Area 51 has secrets that extend far beyond the latest jet from Boeing or Lockheed Martin. One of the more popular claims is that the military took an alien s.p.a.ces.h.i.+p that crashed at Roswell in 1947 to Area 51 in order to study it. Much of current aviation and s.p.a.ce technology, they say, was obtained by reverse engineering that Roswell s.p.a.cecraft. In addition to that, some people believe that dead extraterrestrials from the crash were taken to Area 51 in order to perform autopsies and store them away in secrecy. Those are big claims, but there's more. Some Area 51 enthusiasts also maintain that the government is developing teleportation and time travel capabilities there as well. The gargantuan, insurmountable, and fatal problem for all of this is that none of these claims are proven or even come with compelling evidence. The best we have to back up these claims are stories, UFO sightings, dubious doc.u.ments, and, of course, that alien autopsy video that Fox Network made into a television special in 1995. Simply put, none of this is good enough. It doesn't come close to adding up to the sort of high-quality evidence required to back up such extraordinary claims. Stories can be based on lies, mistakes, or inaccurate memories. For these reasons, hard evidence is absolutely necessary to support stories as wild as the ones...o...b..ting Area 51. UFO sightings may be interesting but they too fall short. Streaking lights in the night sky over Nevada are probably the latest bizarre, ultrasecret vehicle the US Air Force is testing that we won't learn about until many years from now. As for that "alien autopsy" film, it's just another silly dead end. The guy who made it confessed to the hoax in 2006.1 Why do some people insist on believing that a patch of Nevada desert is some kind of a s.p.a.ceport or warehouse for dead aliens? Presumably the intense secrecy and security around Area 51 encourage these ideas. But I fail to see a big mystery here. Why wouldn't there be tight security? This is where the military prepares for wars that might have to be fought twenty, thirty, or fifty years from now. Pus.h.i.+ng aviation engineering to the limits and then trying to reach beyond them is expected, and keeping new technologies a secret can be the difference between victory and defeat in war. As far as reports of seeing weird and unidentified flying objects around Area 51, isn't that to be expected as well? It's a secret base for developing secret technology and aircraft. If anyone could stroll around Area 51 anytime they wanted and if no weird shapes or lights were ever spotted in the southern Nevada sky, then I might be suspicious.

It is easy to underestimate just how bizarre top-secret aircraft probably are right now. A lack of imagination makes it more likely for a person to see something they can't make sense of and conclude that it must be otherworldly. Did you know, for example, that there are programs under way in the US right now to develop large unmanned vehicles capable of staying aloft at very high alt.i.tudes for five years or more without landing? Some are essentially giant, solar-powered wings like NASA's Helios. There are also huge, secret airs.h.i.+ps designed to hover close to the edge of s.p.a.ce where they can serve as cheap alternates to surveillance satellites. Some of these aircraft don't fit the general public's preconceived notions of what flying machines are supposed to look like. I don't know if these kinds of aircraft are being developed at Area 51 specifically, but they could be.

It is also possible that the rapid rise of UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) is contributing to UFO sightings around Area 51 and elsewhere. I was at a conference for future technologies in Chicago a few years ago and was able to see a Global Hawk UAV and talk with a Northrop Grumman representative. I had seen this particular one before in photos and on TV but was surprised by how sleek and futuristic it looked up close. The winged robot seemed to project power and intelligence with its bulbous nose section and aesthetic lines. One detail I have noticed that is common to many UFO reports is that observers claim the light or object moved in ways no airplane ever could. It's important to remember that it's difficult and sometimes impossible to accurately determine distance, direction, and speed when viewing something you can't identify in the sky. This means it is relatively easy to misinterpret the movements of an unknown object. Aside from that, however, could it be that some of these descriptions of radical and "impossible" movements can be attributed to UAVs? UAVs are significantly different from traditional aircraft because with them there is no concern about a human pilot blacking out in the c.o.c.kpit. UAVs are held back only by engine-to-weight ratio and structural strength. Undoubtedly advanced UAVs will be capable of flying in ways far beyond the limits of crewed military aircraft. It's no stretch to imagine that the latest generation of UAVs, such as the US Air Force's RQ-170 Sentinel and, of course, secret UAVs we don't yet know anything about, might confuse a layperson with their extraordinary maneuvering abilities.

As mentioned in the UFO chapter, many strange sightings around Area 51 might be explained by something as simple as flares, a defensive countermeasure used by many military aircraft. In order to evade incoming missiles that seek a heat source (like a jet engine), many military aircraft, including helicopters, are equipped to fire multiple high-intensity flares at once or in rapid succession in hopes of fooling the missile into chasing a flare instead of the aircraft. Some of these flares fall pa.s.sively, but many of them spiral away from the aircraft rapidly on their own unique course. It's not difficult to imagine that the possible testing of next-generation countermeasure systems around Area 51 could lead to UFO sightings.

Seth Shostak is the senior astronomer at the SETI Inst.i.tute, which means he spends most of his waking hours not just thinking in general about the possible existence of intelligent extraterrestrials but thinking of ways in which we might detect them if indeed they are out there somewhere. He is open-minded about UFO claims but feels strongly that speculating about the government hiding aliens from us at Area 51 or anywhere else is a waste of time.

"I think that new and compelling evidence should always be investigated, but I would suggest to the UFO community that, despite more than six decades of claims, there's still no evidence of visitation good enough to stack up in the Smithsonian," he said. "I think that this circ.u.mstance should probably induce a degree of modesty on this subject and not-as all too often happens-an appeal to lack of interest by scientists or hidden evidence. You can't prove that aliens are visiting Earth by pointing to government secrecy. That establishes nothing."2 The fact is we don't know exactly what is going on at Area 51. But that's the whole point of Area 51. What we can safely a.s.sume is that there are cutting-edge aircraft hidden away in hangers there that come out at night and tear up the skies. Considering how bizarre and futuristic-looking some formerly secret aircraft look to most of us today, it's very likely that some experimental aircraft flying in secrecy today would blow our minds if we caught a glimpse of them. This base is no small-time operation. A report in Smithsonian's Air and s.p.a.ce magazine estimated annual expenditures at Area 51 to be more than $30 billion per year. That's almost $100 million per day being spent on new aviation technologies.3 In 2011, an uncrewed US Air Force "plane" that was rocket launched and then reentered the atmosphere, crashed into the Pacific after achieving speeds twenty times the speed of sound. The Falcon Hypersonic Technology Vehicle 2 is part of a project to develop a bomber that can reach a target anywhere in the world within one hour. They told the public about this one. Just imagine all the aircraft that they don't tell us about. It is confirmed that the US military is sending aircraft into s.p.a.ce and returning them. The potential for yet more UFO sightings should be obvious.

William Scott, an aviation reporter, believes that UFO excitement serves as a convenient distraction from the reality of what goes on in Area 51 that the US military and CIA find useful. "The UFO phenomenon is used to protect the base's deepest secrets. I once was advised that if I wanted clues about real-world cla.s.sified aircraft projects, I should read the supermarket tabloids....I once asked a Groom [Area 51] test pilot whether tainting cla.s.sified-aircraft sightings with the UFO stench was ever done intentionally. He smiled and replied: 'It's worked for fifty years. Why would we change now?' Without question, black-world operators have become masters of such deception to protect their work. As a result, Groom Lake will likely retain its secrets for a very long time."4 During the height of the Cold War in the 1950s and 1960s, the CIA estimates that more than half of all reported UFO sightings were caused by flights of American U-2 and SR-71 spy planes.5 More than half. The Cold War has ended, but military spending on new and exotic aircraft certainly has not. The "war on terror" has helped to spark an unprecedented rush to design and build robot spies and warriors for land, sea, and air. In his fascinating book Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century, P. W. Singer points out that the US Air Force now places orders for more UAVs than crewed aircraft. The skies above us are going to be increasingly filled with new and strange flying machines in the coming years. So the next time you see something odd in the sky, or someone tells you about a UFO sighting linked to Area 51, ask yourself if you can be sure it's not reflected light off the belly of a lumbering P-791 hybrid air vehicle,6 an X-47B UAV7 shredding the sky, or maybe even something unknown and unimaginable to the public at this time. If we can't be sure of those possibilities, then we can't justify leaping to the most extraordinary conclusion of all, that it must something from another world.

GO DEEPER...

Burton, Robert A. On Being Certain: Believing You Are Right Even When You're Not. New York: St. Martin's Griffin, 2009.

Merlin, Peter W., and Tony Moore. X-Plane Crashes: Exploring Experimental, Rocket Plane & Spycraft Incidents, Accidents & Crash Sites. North Branch, MN: Specialty Press, 2008.

Patton, Phil. Dreamland: Travels inside the Secret World of Roswell and Area 51. New York: Villard, 1999.

Rich, Ben R. Skunk Works: A Personal Memoir of My Years of Lockheed. New York: Back Bay Books, 1996.

Singer, P. W. Wired for War: The Robotics Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century. New York: Penguin, 2009.

[Two teenagers] were considering killing themselves, because they didn't want to be around when the world ends. Two women in the last two weeks said they were contemplating killing their children and themselves so they wouldn't have to suffer through the end of the world.

-David Morrison, NASA astronomer If you wait for tomorrow, tomorrow comes. If you do not wait for tomorrow, tomorrow comes.

-West African proverb The wild-eyed believer is worried because I'm not worried.

"Seriously, this is no joke," he tells me. "In late 2012, maybe early 2013, the Sun is going to fry the Earth."

"But how do you know this and NASA doesn't?"

"They know."

I have had more than a few encounters like that one recently. I have no right to complain, however. I usually seek them out to learn more for this book. But wait, what was I thinking? Why did I bother writing this book anyway? If the world is going to explode, implode, collide, flood, fry, freeze, or vanish on December 21, 2012? What's the point? I should be busy selling my possessions, hugging my children, and eating as much ice cream as possible before doomsday arrives. But, no, here I am writing away as if the world will still be here after that fateful date in 2012. Will there be a world for us on the morning of December 13? To save readers suspense, I checked to see if there is any good evidence or credible experts that support this extraordinary prediction. I also investigated the sources of 2012 apocalypse belief. What I found may terrify you, but I'll give it to you straight anyway, no holding back: While there are no guarantees, all indications are that the world is not going to end any time soon and we are all going to have to continue existing whether we like it or not. Sorry, you still have to pay those bills, save for retirement, and floss.

Although they could never have known it would come to this and shouldn't be blamed, the Maya of Central America and their calendar are the source of 2012 hysteria. Or, perhaps I should say misinterpretations, mistakes, exaggerations, and lies about their calendar are the sources. The Maya calendar is cyclical and resets to year zero every five thousand years or so. That's all there is to it, really. It's like the calendar on your fridge that eventually hits December 31 and ends. What's the big deal? Go buy another calendar and get on with your life. Experts on Maya culture-people who have dedicated their lives to studying Maya culture-disagree with the claim that the Maya predicted the end of the world in 2012.

"There is nothing in the Maya or Aztec or ancient Mesoamerican prophecy to suggest that they prophesied a sudden or major change of any sort in 2012," explains Mark Van Stone, author of 2012: Science and Prophecy of the Ancient Maya. "The notion of a 'Great Cycle' coming to an end is completely a modern invention. Maya inscriptions that predict the future consistently show that they expected life to go on pretty much the same forever. At Palenque, for instance, they predicted that people in the year 4772 AD would be celebrating the anniversary of the coronation of their great king Pakal."1 So here we have the odd situation where a past culture didn't predict a December 21, 2012, doomsday date but millions of people are choosing to believe they did anyway. More to the point, even if the Maya had clearly made this prediction, it still shouldn't cause anyone to worry. After all, how likely is it that a preindustrial culture was able to identify a specific date for a global catastrophe centuries in advance while NASA and all the world's scientists today can't see it coming mere months in advance? As absurd as this belief may be, it's not unique in its lack of a credible origin. This failure to consider and a.s.sess the source of extraordinary claims is a widespread problem that reaches far beyond 2012. Many irrational beliefs depend on people failing to question how the source knows what it says it knows. When it comes to the age of the Earth, for example, many people choose to trust the word of a preacher with no science education over the conclusions of professional geologists with doctorates. On some matters of science, millions give more credence to radio talk show hosts and politicians than they do the world's leading scientists. The source of a claim may not prove or disprove anything, but it is often a good starting point for someone who sincerely wants to figure out if something is more or less likely to be true.

The popularity of the 2012 claim is remarkable, even for a species long-obsessed with bizarre and baseless end-of-the-world predictions. In most cases, these predictions are conceived and promoted by organized religious groups. The 2012 doomsday claim sprang from one weird notion about an old Mesoamerican calendar and then s...o...b..lled to lure in believers all over the world. It also has joined forces with a long list of paranormal and pseudoscience mainstays, including Nostradamus, astrology, aliens, Atlantis, psychics, reincarnation, and the Bermuda Triangle. It has been surprising, even to me as one who has observed unusual beliefs for many years, to see the connections people have made with 2012. Some say the Maya prophecy even involves. .h.i.tler somehow! It was, of course, a no-brainer that Nostradamus would be tied to 2012. Ah, yes, Nostradamus knew centuries ago that 2012 would be doomsday. Yes, it's all so clear in his writings. Of course, after 2012 pa.s.ses without anything happening Nostradamus's name will be dropped from any further a.s.sociation with the Maya. Then, soon enough, another doomsday prediction or surprise catastrophe will come along. And we will be told that Nostradamus knew all about it centuries ago and warned of us, of course.

Belief in 2012 has been everywhere in recent years, from books to websites to blockbuster movies. It's even in the Bible, according to The Bible Code author Michael Drosnin. He decoded "2012," "comet" and "Earth annihilated" from a pa.s.sage in the Bible.2 Of course, it has to be mentioned that Drosnin is the same guy who also found an encoded biblical prediction of a nuclear holocaust that was supposed to have occurred in 2006.3 Silly as all this may seem to some, I think 2012 is worthy of study and should not be forgotten after the date comes and goes without global doom. This is a textbook-worthy demonstration of how a slim sc.r.a.p of an idea can be inflated with bl.u.s.ter, tied to other hollow claims, and then sweep up millions of imaginative people. If more psychologists, anthropologists, historians, and journalists a.n.a.lyzed these recurring group fantasies and spoke about them more, we might figure out ways to make people less vulnerable to them.

There are many claims about what exactly is supposed to happen on December 21, 2012. One of the more creative ones is the approaching "alien invasion fleet," an image of which was captured for all to see by a powerful telescope. It turned out to be nothing more than an "image defect on the observation plate," however.4 In fact, none of the specific claims for how our planet will be destroyed are worth worrying about, at least not if the world's astronomers can be trusted to know anything about planets and s.p.a.ce. For example, the popular 2012 claim of "planets aligning" or a "galactic alignment" may sound important, maybe even dangerous, but we can relax, say astronomers. Astrologers and 2012 believers may talk about alignments a lot, but "the reality is that alignments are of no interest to science. They mean nothing," explains David Morrison, senior scientist at the NASA Astrobiology Inst.i.tute.5 Far scarier than the gravitational effect of distant planets aligning is the claim that one mysterious planet is heading directly our way and will cause unimaginable destruction by striking Earth or at least pa.s.sing close by us. This is not totally crazy because collisions like that do happen in s.p.a.ce. In fact, it happened to us once already. Astronomers believe that a Mars-sized planet struck Earth shortly after Earth formed. This probably created the debris that eventually became the Moon. Fortunately, we don't have to worry about this happening again anytime soon because there is no such planet heading our way. Keep in mind: this is coming from the world's astronomers-the people who know more about planets than anyone else. Believers who fear a collision with "Planet X," also known as "Nibiru," claim it was originally discovered by the ancient Sumerians. I have spoken to believers who say this planet is "hiding" behind the Sun right now. Many unconvincing photos of Planet X peeking out from behind the Sun are posted on the Web. Apparently these images impress people who don't understand what often happens when cameras are pointed at the Sun. (It's called a lens flare.) Originally it was predicted that this planet would hit the Earth in May 2003.6 When it failed to show, many Nibiru believers revised their doomsday date and jumped on the 2012 bandwagon. Changing dates, by the way, is nothing new. Prophets of doom have been playing that game for thousands of years. I'm no Nostradamus, but after December 21, 2012, fails, I boldly predict somebody will come up with a new and "correct" interpretation of the Maya calendar that pushes the date forward by several years or so. And many people will believe it!

A "polar s.h.i.+ft" or "pole s.h.i.+ft" will bring about the 2012 catastrophe, say some believers. Depending on whom you listen to, this either refers to a flip of magnetic polarity, or that the Earth's rotational spin will stop or reverse. Again, don't stop flossing. You are probably going to be alive in 2013. A pole s.h.i.+ft does not threaten Boy Scouts making their way through the woods with a compa.s.s nor the rest of us. NASA astronomer Morrison explains: "A reversal in the rotation of Earth is impossible. It has never happened and never will. There are slow movements of the continents (for example Antarctica was near the equator hundreds of millions of years ago), but that is irrelevant to claims of reversal of the rotational poles. However, many of the disaster websites pull a bait-and-switch to fool people. They claim a relations.h.i.+p between the rotation and the magnetic field of Earth, which does change irregularly with a magnetic reversal taking place, on average, every four hundred thousand years. As far as we know, such a magnetic reversal does not cause any harm to life on Earth. A magnetic reversal is very unlikely to happen in the next few millennia, anyway."7 WHAT IS THE APPEAL?.

Why has this hollow claim attracted and entranced so many people? Perhaps 2012 belief swept around the world seducing believers in the early twenty-first century because it took the common desire to glance back at our past and combined that sentiment with the understandable concern one has about being incinerated by the Sun and crushed by falling buildings. It mixes in astronomical pseudoscience to give it a modern, high-tech flavor as well. It's natural for us to want to hear whispers from the ancients, to know their wisdom and glean a bit of parental knowledge as we face the stress of modern life and an uncertain future. Furthermore, there is no denying our obsession with the end. The doomsday theme often emerges in everything from songs to comic books, from films to religions. I'm certainly not immune to it. Some of my favorite fictional books and films center on the end of the world. I've always been drawn to nonfiction science books that address real doomsday possibilities, such as asteroid strikes, plagues, and nuclear war. It's exciting stuff, no denying it. There is an "apocalyptic p.o.r.n" market out there that seems to feed the reptilian brain of a wide range of people, including those who like to think of themselves as rational skeptics. But mentally toying with such ultimate horror is tolerable, I suspect, only because deep down very few of us really believe any of these things will come to pa.s.s in our lifetimes. It's like riding a roller coaster. You feel like your life is in danger, but even while screaming you still trust that the car will stay on the rails.

GO DEEPER...

Coe, Michael D. The Maya. London: Thames and Hudson, 2011.

Sharer, Robert. The Ancient Maya. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005.

I don't even think about the Rapture not happening on May 21 [2011] because I know that it will. You will see.

-Rita, May 7, 2011 Only after disaster can we be resurrected.

-Brad Pitt as Tyler Durden, Fight Club I grew up in a small coastal town in south Florida, which means I was fed a diet rich in oranges, fish, and strange warnings about the end of the world. Judgment Day, I often heard, would start with "good Christians" being swept up to heaven while everybody else was left on Earth to riot, loot, and be eaten by a dragon...or something like that. Eventually Jesus would return on horseback and fix the world. I can't recall my parents ever mentioning the "End Times," but I do remember hearing kids at school, TV preachers, and a friend's mother talk about it. I also remember sitting through a few church sermons in which a preacher warned about the Rapture, the moment when born-again Christians vanish and avoid all the chaos and suffering to come. They always said it was almost here, and might even come that day. Earthquakes and wars were clear signs, they said, and when I was a child there were earthquakes and wars-just like today. I specifically remember one preacher warning me that if the Rapture happened before I accepted Jesus into my heart, I would burn in h.e.l.l forever with no second chances-nice thing to tell a ten-year-old. But a funny thing happened on the way to adulthood. The Four Hors.e.m.e.n of the Apocalypse never showed up. But, no matter, the Rapture is still coming, very soon, of course. Century after century, it's always just around the corner.

According to the book of Revelation in the Bible, which 31 percent of Americans take to be a literal prediction of the immediate future, the world will be struck with epidemics, famines, natural disasters, and wars.1 People who don't know much about history tend to be very impressed by this and point to current headlines as proof that the Apocalypse is drawing near. However, the reality is that bad news is nothing new. Many people were certain the world was going to end when the Black Death raged in Europe in the 1300s. World War II looked a lot like the end to some. And the Rapture was very near during some of the more tense days of the Cold War, many believers said with confidence fifty years ago. Not much has changed. The Left Behind series of Rapture-themed novels has sold tens of millions of copies. According to a 2002 Time/CNN poll, 59 percent of Americans believe that prophecies contained in the book of Revelation will come true, even if not every detail is accurate.

If all goes according to plan, earthly problems will mount for us and then the Antichrist will rise up to direct our descent into enslavement, destruction, and eternal suffering. Thanks to the Omen movies, we all know to be very afraid of the creepy but charismatic Antichrist. For half my life I heard people declare with great confidence that he was Pope John Paul II. That didn't work out, of course, so it must be someone else. A significant number of Americans think it might be President Barack Obama. But, don't forget, nearly 20 percent of Americans also think the Sun revolves around the Earth, so I wouldn't suggest relying on popular opinion polls to find out who the Antichrist is.2 Still, belief about the Antichrist is worth noting for what it reveals about people and their ideas about the end of the world. According to a 2010 study by Harris Interactive, 25 percent of Tea Party members suspect that Obama is the great evil one.3 Among Republicans in general, 24 percent think he may be the Antichrist. Thirteen percent of independents and six percent of Democrats also worry that Obama may be hiding the "mark of the beast" somewhere on his body. Overall, 14 percent of Americans think that the US president could be the "seed of Satan."4 Did I mention there is also a red seven-headed dragon wearing crowns and a giant sea monster involved in all this? Dragons are always fun, but my favorite Apocalyptic creatures as promised in Revelation are the locusts: "The appearance of the locusts was like horses prepared for battle; and on their heads appeared to be crowns like gold, and their faces were like the faces of men. They had hair like the hair of women, and their teeth were like the teeth of lions. They had breastplates like breastplates of iron; and the sound of their wings was like the sound of chariots, of many horses rus.h.i.+ng to battle."5 The selective nature of the Rapture is extreme to the say the least. According to Rapture believers it's not enough to be a Christian. One must be specific type of Christian. For example, Catholics and Mormons are in trouble, according to many confident Rapture-ready people I have spoken to. They also tell me that a "born-again" experience is required to clear the bar on Judgment Day. A key point many Rapture believers seem to miss in all of this is how incredibly cruel and barbaric it would be if it actually happened. It is unconscionable that believers often seem thrilled about the horrors of doomsday in order to scare people-including young children-but never seem to reflect on the apparent madness and evil of it all. Why is it necessary for some five or six billion people to suffer and die? Why is so much destruction required? One would think that an all-powerful G.o.d could come up with a smoother transition plan.

In the end, Satan and the Antichrist fail, of course, which raises the question, Can't they read? The story is laid out in the Bible, so why would Satan bother trying when he knows he is going to lose? The climax of the whole affair, by the way, is Jesus returning as a warrior with a sword and riding on a white horse to smash nations and establish a new kingdom of G.o.d. This image seems to contradict the popular notion that Jesus is concerned only with love and forgiveness.

I met the late evangelist Sir Lionel Luckhoo several years ago while reporting on a faith-healing service in the Caribbean. The Guyanese lawyer was best known for being listed in the Guinness Book of World Records as the world's most successful lawyer with 245 successive murder acquittals. More interesting to me than courtroom conquests was his ability to know the future. He told me that he was in a race against time to spread the "word of Jesus." It was November 1993 when we spoke, and I asked him about the end of the world. He said he did not know the exact date but did know that it would be soon. "I am sure of one thing," he said. "We [Christians] will not see December 31, 1999, because we will be in heaven! The return of the master is imminent. Jesus is at the door."6 Luckhoo was just one of countless millions of Christians over the centuries who were confident that they would see the Rapture occur in their lifetime only to go to their graves disappointed. It's a safe bet that every one of the preachers today who repeatedly promise that the end is almost here will one day die and the world will keep on spinning. The only question is, How many more generations must pa.s.s before doubts about the Rapture finally take hold and believers accept that it's just never going to happen?

ENCOUNTER WITH A DOOMSDAY BELIEVER.

"I would estimate that about 97 percent of the people in the world will not make it," the woman behind the sungla.s.ses said. "That's sad, of course. That's why I'm out here trying to let people know."

Her name was Rita and she told me that the world as I knew it would end on May 21, 2011. That's only about two weeks from the day we spoke in southern California. I was confident that the world would not end-and obviously it did not, as her fatal date came and went. Doomsday believers like Rita are nothing new, of course. They have been around for thousands of years. For me, however, every time I meet one it's like the first time all over again. My fascination rises with their sincerity-and Rita was as sincere as they came.

Here was this soft-spoken and polite middle-aged woman walking back and forth on a sunny day warning the heathens that they were almost out of time. Her tiny body was draped in a heavy sandwich board with "End of the World-May 21, 2011," written in large letters, front and back. Rita clearly cared. She wasn't signing up new members or asking for money. She only wanted people to know that her loving G.o.d was going to kill billions of people in a couple of weeks and some heavy duty praying was in order. I walked away from our conversation sad for her. Strange as it may seem, I almost wanted the world to end just so this sweet misguided woman wouldn't have to face her own internal psychological Armageddon.

For readers who may be wondering where the May 21 date came from, I did the mind-numbing research to find out so you don't have to. It was Harold Camping, head of a Christian radio network, who came up with the date based primarily on the timing of the Noah's ark story. Camping believes the flood occurred in the year 4990 BCE (seven thousand years ago). Of course any high school kid with a halfdecent education would know to tune out right there. For the entire Earth to have been flooded a mere seven thousand years ago would mean that the entire fields of geology, biology, zoology, anthropology, marine science, and archaeology are all wrong. Obviously a global flood did not happen seven thousand years ago, so no extrapolated date from that point is going to work. Camping's prediction never had a chance because it was a mistake based on a mistake. While talking with Rita, I knew doomsday wasn't coming but I couldn't help caring about her.

Me: "Are you confident that you will be Raptured if the world ends May 21?"

Rita: "No, not at all. I hope that I will be, but only G.o.d knows."

"Does walking around in the hot sun warning people about May 21 help your chances?"

"I hope so, but I really don't know. It's not about what you do or who you are. It's all been predetermined who will be and who won't be."

"So what you do from now until then doesn't really matter because it's already decided?"

"Yes."

"So it's possible that you could be left behind to suffer while some killer who is in prison right now could be Raptured?"

"Yes. Well, I don't think Osama bin Laden would go to heaven because he didn't believe in the G.o.d of the Bible. But we can't really know."

"How do strangers react to you when you tell them the world is going to end later this month?"

"I get every kind of response you might imagine. Some are nice, some are not."

"What happens if May 21 comes and goes without earthquakes, tsunamis, or anything unusual? How will you feel?"

"I don't think about that because I know it will happen. I made the decision months ago to disconnect my computer and stop thinking about it. It's going to happen."

"But there have been countless predictions of the end of the world throughout history, and all of them failed to come true. Doesn't that concern you a little bit?"

"But they were all based on misreadings of the Bible and misunderstandings. Many people make the mistake of looking too closely at political happenings, things that don't really matter. It's all in the Bible."

"You won't be tempted to kill yourself or anything like that if nothing happens on May 21, will you?"

"No, that's not a concern at all. I don't even think about the Rapture not happening on May 21 because I know that it will. You will see."

After May 21, 2011, pa.s.sed Raptureless, Harold Camping announced to his followers and to the world that Judgment Day had indeed occurred but no one realized it because it was an "invisible Judgment Day." He then said the actual date of destruction had been revised to October 21, 2011. A few days after the May 21 disappointment I listened to Camping take phone calls from listeners on his radio station. Some callers were upset and some mocked him. Many others, however, a.s.sured him that they still believed in him and trusted that his new prophecy was accurate.

I think about the lady with the doomsday sign sometimes. I hope Rita fares well with whatever psychological stress Camping's failed predictions might have caused her. I wish her well, wherever she is today. She and I are not so different, really. Rita believed she had an important warning for all humankind and was willing to face criticism and ridicule to share it. I write essays and books to share my warning about irrational beliefs. Sometimes I am criticized and mocked for my efforts. But I do it anyway because I care about others-just like Rita who saw the mirage of yet another apocalypse on the horizon and was compelled to warn strangers about it. People like her think the world will end in supernatural destruction very soon with a few special people escaping to heaven. I believe the world will keep on spinning and life will endure. I suppose we have to wait and see to find out who is right. In the meantime, however, I suggest that my outlook is the healthiest way to live.

WHO GETS TO MAKE THE RULES?.

Warnings about the Rapture and global destruction are not as simple as most preachers describe because there is tremendous disagreement about it within Christianity. Various churches and denominations have conflicting views about precisely how it will happen, where everybody goes, who gets saved and who doesn't, and which parts of Revelation are meant to be interpreted metaphorically and which parts are meant to be taken literally. How is a Christian supposed to know which one of the many versions of Christianity has it right on the End Times? What matters? Are the Catholics right or are the Baptists right? What about the Rastafarians, Mormons, Jehovah's Witnesses, and so on? Key areas are viewed very differently within the many different versions of Christianity. Points of disagreement include Holy Communion, baptism, the Book of Mormon, Sat.u.r.day or Sunday Sabbath, the return of black people to Africa, pants for women, blood transfusions, tattoos, dancing, divorce, modern science, h.o.m.os.e.xuality, and many more. Depending on whom you ask, those points and many others are the difference between salvation and d.a.m.nation. It's a tough call to choose which way to go because no one denomination can make the case that it has the weight of evidence or logic in its favor. But it's even more difficult than that for those who might want to play it safe because Christianity is not the only religion that comes with a doomsday warning.

How can we know which religion's apocalypse is the one we should be concerned about? There are many belief systems that have their own unique end-of-the-world scenarios. And most of them require one to be correctly aligned with their demands in order to survive or at least end up in a happy place. Islam, for example, is the world's second most popular religion with more than one billion followers, and it has its own distinct final chapter. Are you up to speed on the predicted appearance of the Mahdi in the final days? Some say he's due to arrive any day now. Should we all become Muslims in order to play it safe? But wait, should we be Sunni or s.h.i.+a Muslims? What about the great flood to come, as promised by Norse religion? Should we all start building arks? With so many to choose from, how do we decide? Can we vote on our preferred apocalypse? If so, I think I'd go with the Zoroastrians' more inclusive version of doomsday. Theirs involves a bit of suffering followed by forgiveness for everyone and peace on Earth. And no dragons or creepy, long-haired locusts to worry about.

END GAMES.

During the buildup of hype for Y2K, the digital Armageddon that was supposed to happen on New Year's Day, 2000, I remember chucking an extra jar of peanut b.u.t.ter and a few more cans of green beans than usual into my shopping cart at the grocery store-just in case. I think I may have felt a momentary twinge of that weird rush of excitement the apocalyptic faithful must feel when she stores up freeze-dried food and ammunition in preparation for her supernatural doomsday. Finally, I thought to myself, a rational, thinking skeptic can enjoy a small taste of apocalyptic paranoia. I have to confess, it was fun to imagine not having to go to work on Monday or wash my car anymore. It was perversely exhilarating to imagine a world without rules, fis.h.i.+ng for dinner, growing vegetables, plenty of time to read, setting up a solar-powered DVD player, coming up with creative ways to defend my fortress from looters and zombies. Perhaps this is what is behind all the end-of-the-world and human-extinction buzz. Maybe it is nothing more than the fantasy of freedom from daily drudgery and a chance to escape from responsibility that draws us toward belief in a magical finish. In fundamentalist churches one does not have to sit in a pew for long before hearing about the End Times. According to a Baylor study, approximately one-fifth of all Americans have read at least one book in the Left Behind series of novels about the Rapture.7 Many millions of people worldwide view most natural disasters as signs of Judgment Day's approach. It's a.s.sumed that all of this interest is fueled by religion, but maybe it has as much or more to do with Mad Max fantasies as belief in destructive G.o.ds. It's possible. After all, one does not even need religion to be seduced by the apocalypse.

GEEK RAPTURE.

Not to be left out, secular nerds finally have their own Rapture. It's called the Technological Si