Climatic Changes Part 18

Seism. Soc. Am., Vol. 2, 1912, pp. 40-91, 124-133.]

[Footnote 132: The only other explanation that seems to have any standing is the psychological hypothesis of Montessus de Ballore as given in Les Tremblements de Terre. He attributes the apparent seasonal variation in earthquakes to the fact that in winter people are within doors, and hence notice movements of the earth much more than in summer when they are out of doors. There is a similar difference between people's habits in high lat.i.tudes and low. Undoubtedly this does have a marked effect upon the degree to which minor earthquake shocks are noticed. Nevertheless, de Ballore's contention, as well as any other psychological explanation, is completely upset by two facts: First, instrumental records show the same seasonal distribution as do records based on direct observation, and instruments certainly are not influenced by the seasons. Second, in some places, notably China, as Drake has shown, the summer rather than the winter is very decidedly the time when earthquakes are most frequent.]

[Footnote 133: A comparison of tropical hurricanes with earthquakes is interesting. Taking all the hurricanes recorded in August, September, and October, from 1880 to 1899, and the corresponding earthquakes in Milne's catalogue, the correlation coefficient between hurricanes and earthquakes is +0.236, with a probable error of 0.082, the month being used as the unit. This is not a large correlation, yet when it is remembered that the hurricanes represent only a small part of the atmospheric disturbances in any given month, it suggests that with fuller data the correlation might be large.]

[Footnote 134: Ellsworth Huntington: The Geographic Work of Dr. M. A.

Veeder; Geog. Rev., Vol. 3, March and April, 1917, Nos. 3 and 4.]

[Footnote 135: Frank Schlesinger: Variations of Lat.i.tude; Their Bearing upon Our Knowledge of the Interior of the Earth; Proc. Am. Phil. Soc., Vol. 54, 1915, pp. 351-358. Also Smithsonian Report for 1916, pp.

248-254.]

[Footnote 136: Harold Jeffreys: Causes Contributory to the Annual Variations of Lat.i.tude; Monthly Notices, Royal Astronomical Soc., Vol.

76, 1916, pp. 499-525.]

[Footnote 137: John Milne: British a.s.sociation Reports for 1903 and 1906.]

[Footnote 138: C. G. Knott: The Physics of Earthquake Phenomena, Oxford, 1908.]

[Footnote 139: A. C. Lawson: The Mobility of the Coast Ranges of California; Univ. of Calif. Pub., Geology, Vol. 12, No. 7, pp. 431-473.]

CONCLUSION

Here we must bring this study of the earth's evolution to a close. Its fundamental principle has been that the present, if rightly understood, affords a full key to the past. With this as a guide we have touched on many hypotheses, some essential and some unessential to the general line of thought. The first main hypothesis is that the earth's present climatic variations are correlated with changes in the solar atmosphere.

This is the keynote of the whole book. It is so well established, however, that it ranks as a theory rather than as an hypothesis. Next comes the hypothesis that variations in the solar atmosphere influence the earth's climate chiefly by causing variations not only in temperature but also in atmospheric pressure and thus in storminess, wind, and rainfall. This, too, is one of the essential foundations on which the rest of the book is built, but though this cyclonic hypothesis is still a matter of discussion, it seems to be based on strong evidence. These two hypotheses might lead us astray were they not balanced by another. This other is that many climatic conditions are due to purely terrestrial causes, such as the form and alt.i.tude of the lands, the degree to which the continents are united, the movement of ocean currents, the activity of volcanoes, and the composition of the atmosphere and the ocean. Only by combining the solar and the terrestrial can the truth be perceived. Finally, the last main hypothesis of this book holds that if the climatic conditions which now prevail at times of solar activity were magnified sufficiently and if they occurred in conjunction with certain important terrestrial conditions of which there is good evidence, they would produce most of the notable phenomena of glacial periods. For example, they would explain such puzzling conditions as the localization and periodicity of glaciation, the formation of loess, and the occurrence of glaciation in low lat.i.tudes during Permian and Proterozoic times. The converse of this is that if the conditions which now prevail at times when the sun is relatively inactive should be intensified, that is, if the sun's atmosphere should become calmer than now, and if the proper terrestrial conditions of topographic form and atmospheric composition should prevail, there would arise the mild climatic conditions which appear to have prevailed during the greater part of geological time. In short, there seems thus far to be no phase of the climate of the past which is not in harmony with an hypothesis which combines into a single unit the three main hypotheses of this book, solar, cyclonic, and terrestrial.

Outside the main line of thought lie several other hypotheses. Several of these, as well as some of the main hypotheses, are discussed chiefly in _Earth and Sun_, but as they are given a practical application in this book they deserve a place in this final summary. Each of these secondary hypotheses is in its way important. Yet any or all may prove untrue without altering our main conclusions. This point cannot be too strongly emphasized, for there is always danger that differences of opinion as to minor hypotheses and even as to details may divert attention from the main point. Among the non-essential hypotheses is the idea that the sun's atmosphere influences that of the earth electrically as well as thermally. This idea is still so new that it has only just entered the stage of active discussion, and naturally the weight of opinion is against it. Although not necessary to the main purpose of this book, it plays a minor role in the chapter dealing with the relation of the sun to other astronomical bodies. It also has a vital bearing on the further advance of the science of meteorology and the art of weather forecasting. Another secondary hypothesis holds that sunspots are set in motion by the planets. Whether the effect is gravitational or more probably electrical, or perhaps of some other sort, does not concern us at present, although the weight of evidence seems to point toward electronic emissions. This question, like that of the relative parts played by heat and electricity in terrestrial climatic changes, can be set aside for the moment. What does concern us is a third hypothesis, namely, that if the planets really determine the periodicity of sunspots, even though not supplying the energy, the sun in its flight through s.p.a.ce must have been repeatedly and more strongly influenced in the same way by many other heavenly bodies. In that case, climatic changes like those of the present, but sometimes greatly magnified, have presumably arisen because of the constantly changing position of the solar system in respect to other parts of the universe. Finally, the fourth of our secondary hypotheses postulates that at present the date of movements of the earth's crust is often determined by the fact that storms and other meteorological conditions keep changing the load upon first one part of the earth's surface and then upon another. Thus stresses that have acc.u.mulated in the earth's isostatic sh.e.l.l during the preceding months are released. In somewhat the same way epochs of extreme storminess and rapid erosion in the past may possibly have set the date for great movements of the earth's crust. This hypothesis, like the other three in our secondary or non-essential group, is still so new that only the first steps have been taken in testing it. Yet it seems to deserve careful study.

In testing all the hypotheses here discussed, primary and secondary alike, the first necessity is a far greater amount of quant.i.tative work.

In this book there has been a constant attempt to subject every hypothesis to the test of statistical facts of observation.

Nevertheless, we have been breaking so much new ground that in many cases exact facts are not yet available, while in others they can be properly investigated only by specialists in physics, astronomy, or mathematics. In most cases the next great step is to ascertain whether the forces here called upon are actually great enough to produce the observed results. Even though they act only as a means of releasing the far greater forces due to the contraction of the earth and the sun, they need to be rigidly tested as to their ability to play even this minor role. Still another line of study that cries aloud for research is a fuller comparison between earthquakes on the one hand and meteorological conditions and the wandering of the poles on the other. Finally, an extremely interesting and hopeful quest is the determination of the positions and movements of additional stars and other celestial bodies, the faint and invisible as well as the bright, in order to ascertain the probable magnitude of their influence upon the sun and thus upon the earth at various times in the past and in the future. Perhaps we are even now approaching some star that will some day give rise to a period of climatic stress like that of the fourteenth century, or possibly to a glacial epoch. Or perhaps the variations in others of the nearer stars as well as Alpha Centauri may show a close relation to changes in the sun.

Throughout this volume we have endeavored to discover new truth concerning the physical environment that has molded the evolution of all life. We have seen how delicate is the balance among the forces of nature, even though they be of the most stupendous magnitude. We have seen that a disturbance of this balance in one of the heavenly bodies may lead to profound changes in another far away. Yet during the billion years, more or less, of which we have knowledge, there appears never to have been a complete cataclysm involving the destruction of all life.

One star after another, if our hypothesis is correct, has approached the solar system closely enough to set the atmosphere of the sun in such commotion that great changes of climate have occurred upon the earth.

Yet never has the solar system pa.s.sed so close to any other body or changed in any other way sufficiently to blot out all living things. The effect of climatic changes has always been to alter the environment and therefore to destroy part of the life of a given time, but with this there has invariably gone a stimulus to other organic types. New adaptations have occurred, new lines of evolutionary progress have been initiated, and the net result has been greater organic diversity and richness. Temporarily a great change of climate may seem to r.e.t.a.r.d evolution, but only for a moment as the geologist counts time. Then it becomes evident that the march of progress has actually been more rapid than usual. Thus the main periods of climatic stress are the most conspicuous milestones upon the upward path toward more varied adaptation. The end of each such period of stress has found the life of the world nearer to the high mentality which reaches out to the utmost limits of s.p.a.ce, of time, and of thought in the search for some explanation of the meaning of the universe. Each approach of the sun to other bodies, if such be the cause of the major climatic changes, has brought the organic world one step nearer to the solution of the greatest of all problems,--the problem of whether there is a psychic goal beyond the mental goal toward which we are moving with ever accelerating speed. Throughout the vast eons of geological time the adjustment of force to force, of one body of matter to another, and of the physical environment to the organic response has been so delicate, and has tended so steadily toward the one main line of mental progress that there seems to be a purpose in it all. If the cosmic uniformity of climate continues to prevail and if the uniformity is varied by changes as stimulating as those of the past, the imagination can scarcely picture the wonders of the future. In the course of millions or even billions of years the development of mind, and perhaps of soul, may excel that of today as far as the highest known type of mentality excels the primitive plasma from which all life appears to have arisen.