School Choice or Best Systems Part 1

School choice : the findings.

by Herbert J. Walberg.

Acknowledgments.

I am fortunate to have been stimulated and supported by colleagues and organizations starting in graduate school at the University of Chicago, where I completed doctoral studies in 1964. The university supported interdisciplinary study, emphasized quant.i.tative a.n.a.lysis, and encouraged doubt about conventional views-all of which were useful in completing the present book.

My present academic appointment at Stanford University's Hoover Inst.i.tution enabled me, as a member of the Koret Task Force on K-12 Education, to meet twice a year and collaborate with its distinguished members-John Chubb, Williamson Evers, Chester Finn, Eric Ha.n.u.shek, Paul Hill, E. D. Hirsch, Caroline Hoxby, Terry Moe, Paul Peterson, and Diane Ravitch. The members of this group hardly agree on all points about choice and other matters, but we probably would agree that our group discussions are among the most stimulating of our careers. They have led to the founding of the journal Education Next, Education Next, the publication of a number of books, and evaluations of school policy in Florida, Texas, and Arkansas. I also acknowledge and thank Hoover director John Raisian, who sponsored work on one of my previous books on choice, the publication of a number of books, and evaluations of school policy in Florida, Texas, and Arkansas. I also acknowledge and thank Hoover director John Raisian, who sponsored work on one of my previous books on choice, Education and Capitalism Education and Capitalism, coauth.o.r.ed with Joseph Bast and published by Hoover Inst.i.tution Press.

The National Center on School Choice at Vanderbilt University, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education, has stimulated my thinking and writing about choice. My work there, including that on the Handbook of Research on School Choice Handbook of Research on School Choice and and Charter School Outcomes Charter School Outcomes , both coedited with the center's director Mark Berends and a.s.sociates Dale Ballou and Matthew Springer as the beginning of a new series of books on school choice, has informed and motivated me in writing the present book. , both coedited with the center's director Mark Berends and a.s.sociates Dale Ballou and Matthew Springer as the beginning of a new series of books on school choice, has informed and motivated me in writing the present book.

I am honored to be a trustee, and to be stimulated by the other trustees, of the Foundation for Teaching Economics, which provides scholars.h.i.+ps for high school teachers and students to study economics. Until his death, the foundation was advised by Milton Friedman, perhaps the most important school choice leader of modern times. At present it includes as board members two n.o.bel laureates, Dougla.s.s North and Vernon Smith, as well as chairman William Hume, president Gary Walton, and other leading academic and business leaders.

Finally, I thank five people who carefully reviewed and made constructive substantive suggestions: Joseph Bast, president of the Heartland Inst.i.tute, whose board I chair; my friend Steven Graubart; Robin LaSota of the Academic Development Inst.i.tute; the Cato Inst.i.tute's Andrew Coulson; and an anonymous reviewer, all of whom informed me about relevant research that had escaped my attention. Perhaps needless to say, the remaining opinions, errors, and infelicities are solely my own.

Herbert J. Walberg Chicago, IL

1.

Introduction and Overview

U.S. Schools Are Falling Behind.

The United States of America is arguably the world leader in income, wealth, military power, and cultural influence. It hovers near the top of international rankings in higher education, scientific and medical discoveries, and the productivity of many of its industries. Yet U.S. schools are behind those of most other economically advanced countries in both effectiveness and efficiency.1 By the end of high school, U.S. academic achievement lags behind that of most member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-a group that includes most of the world's economically advanced countries. By the end of high school, U.S. academic achievement lags behind that of most member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development-a group that includes most of the world's economically advanced countries.

In addition to being ineffective, American public schools are inefficient or unproductive, which is to say they get little return on taxpayers' dollars. Their per student costs rank among the top two or three countries in recent OECD surveys and have risen substantially over the last few decades. This pattern of low and declining efficiency is at odds with most other American enterprises, in which compet.i.tion has generally led to improved quality and declining (inflation-adjusted) costs.

By widely accepted standards of what educated citizens should know, U.S. students perform poorly in civics, geography, history, and other subjects. Compared to students in other countries, older American students do poorly in mathematics, science, and foreign languages. Yet American students are not behind in the earliest years of schooling. Their achievement, relative to students in other countries, declines during the years when learning is chiefly the responsibility of schools. Indeed, the "value-added" gains in reading, mathematics, and science for American students are generally among the worst of students living in affluent countries. These findings are becoming better known to the public, parents, and legislators.

The latest available data indicate that the percentage of schools "in need of improvement" under the generally low standards imposed by states and the federal No Child Left Behind Act of 2002 has increased from 13 percent to 17 percent.2 They and sharply increasing numbers of other schools face escalating sanctions, such as having to inform parents that their children are in failing schools, being required to allow parents to transfer their children to successful schools, replacing staff, and, if failure continues, possible closure. They and sharply increasing numbers of other schools face escalating sanctions, such as having to inform parents that their children are in failing schools, being required to allow parents to transfer their children to successful schools, replacing staff, and, if failure continues, possible closure.

Despite such present and prospective sanctions, despite widespread recognition of the achievement problem, despite higher school spending, the National a.s.sessment of Educational Progress (referred to as "the nation's report card") reported in February 2007 that reading achievement of American 12th grade students had declined from 1992 through 2005. Standards, instead of rising, have declined; despite the drop in students' performance, teachers are giving them higher grades.3 Poor high school performance leads to poor college performance. According to the National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, only 68 percent of ninth graders graduate on time; only 40 percent enroll directly in college.4 Of high school seniors who took the American College Test for admission to college in 2006, only 51 percent met the college-readiness benchmark for reading. Of those who failed the reading benchmark, 84 percent also failed the mathematics benchmark, and 95 percent failed the science benchmark. Sorting the results by racial-ethnic groups, 59 percent of whites pa.s.sed, as did 54 percent of Asians, 36 percent of Native Americans, 33 percent of Hispanics, and 21 percent of African Americans. Of high school seniors who took the American College Test for admission to college in 2006, only 51 percent met the college-readiness benchmark for reading. Of those who failed the reading benchmark, 84 percent also failed the mathematics benchmark, and 95 percent failed the science benchmark. Sorting the results by racial-ethnic groups, 59 percent of whites pa.s.sed, as did 54 percent of Asians, 36 percent of Native Americans, 33 percent of Hispanics, and 21 percent of African Americans.5 As a consequence of such poor preparation, some one million full-time freshmen enter colleges and universities each year, but fewer than 4 in 10 finish in four years, and only 6 in 10 finish in six years. As a consequence of such poor preparation, some one million full-time freshmen enter colleges and universities each year, but fewer than 4 in 10 finish in four years, and only 6 in 10 finish in six years.6 Because of poor prior preparation in high school, college graduates perform poorly: This past August [2006], the National Commission on the Future of Higher Education reported that "the quality of student learning-as measured by a.s.sessments of college graduates-is declining." It cited a stunning finding of the National a.s.sessment of Adult Literacy: Only 31 percent of college-educated Americans qualify as "prose literate," meaning that at they can fully comprehend something as simple as a newspaper story. This number has shrunk from 40 percent a decade ago, apparently because the flood of badly educated new graduates is dragging down the average. Because of poor prior preparation in high school, college graduates perform poorly: This past August [2006], the National Commission on the Future of Higher Education reported that "the quality of student learning-as measured by a.s.sessments of college graduates-is declining." It cited a stunning finding of the National a.s.sessment of Adult Literacy: Only 31 percent of college-educated Americans qualify as "prose literate," meaning that at they can fully comprehend something as simple as a newspaper story. This number has shrunk from 40 percent a decade ago, apparently because the flood of badly educated new graduates is dragging down the average.7 In addition to being ineffective and inefficient, schools can be dangerous places, particularly those in big cities and those serving predominantly poor and minority students. In a recent poll, 73 percent of low-income parents and 46 percent of higher-income parents said they worried "a lot" about their children's exposure to drugs and alcohol at school. Similarly, 65 percent of low-income parents and 39 percent of higher-income parents worried a great deal about their children being a.s.saulted or even kidnapped.8 Declining Productivity U.S. citizens pay more per student for K-12 public education than nearly all other economically advanced countries, and the real (inflation-adjusted) per student costs of that schooling have increased substantially over the last several decades. Additional value is normally expected for additional money, but rising spending hasn't helped American schools to achieve more.9 The productivity of schools in the United States-the ratio of achievement to spending-is necessarily declining since achievement (the numerator) remains relatively low and spending (the denominator) is rising. It is costing more and more to get similar or worse results. According to research conducted by Harvard University economist Caroline Hoxby, the productivity of public schools in the United States fell between 55 and 73 percent between 1970-71 and 1998-99.10 This ratio underestimates the decline in school productivity because it does not take into account the rise in average scores on intelligence tests designed to measure children's capacity to succeed in school. This increase is attributable to better nutrition and housing and to rising levels of income, wealth, and intellectual stimulation at home in the last three decades. Productivity should have improved even if the schools did nothing different.11 Academic achievement matters because a country's achievement test scores in mathematics and science are strongly correlated with and predictive of a country's economic growth. Economic growth, in turn, is linked to objective measures of a country's quality of life in such fields as health, housing, and child rearing.12 Thus, poor U.S. achievement test scores are not merely of academic interest. They have real-world consequences for the welfare of millions of children and young adults. Poor schools even threaten older generations whose Social Security and pensions depend on a healthy economy and well-educated workforce. Thus, poor U.S. achievement test scores are not merely of academic interest. They have real-world consequences for the welfare of millions of children and young adults. Poor schools even threaten older generations whose Social Security and pensions depend on a healthy economy and well-educated workforce.

These problems and prospects have not escaped the notice of employers and citizens. A national Conference Board survey polled 431 employers of recently hired high school and college graduates in 2006 and concluded that they generally lacked requisite general knowledge and basic skills of reading comprehension and mathematical computation. Graduates also generally lacked important skills in communication, collaboration, and critical thinking. 13 13 Perhaps as a consequence, only 3 in 10 voters in a 2006 national exit poll expected their children to enjoy a better standard of living than they do, contrary to much of the American experience of the past. Perhaps as a consequence, only 3 in 10 voters in a 2006 national exit poll expected their children to enjoy a better standard of living than they do, contrary to much of the American experience of the past. 14 14 International Talent Compet.i.tion Modern economies pay huge premiums for advanced, often specialized, knowledge and skills, or "high levels of human capital."15 Such capital, which can apply to all areas of life, const.i.tutes a vast and growing fraction of the value of modern firms and other organizations. As Such capital, which can apply to all areas of life, const.i.tutes a vast and growing fraction of the value of modern firms and other organizations. As The Economist The Economist notes: notes: The value of "intangible" a.s.sets-everything from skilled workers to patents to know-how-has ballooned from 20% of the value of companies in the S&P 500 to 70% today. The proportion of American workers doing jobs that call for complex skills [has] thus grown three times as fast as employment in general. As other economies move in the same direction, the global demand is rising quickly. . . . The imminent retirement of the baby-boomers means that companies will lose large numbers of experienced workers in a short s.p.a.ce of time. . . . By one count half the top people at America's 500 leading companies will go in the next five years. The value of "intangible" a.s.sets-everything from skilled workers to patents to know-how-has ballooned from 20% of the value of companies in the S&P 500 to 70% today. The proportion of American workers doing jobs that call for complex skills [has] thus grown three times as fast as employment in general. As other economies move in the same direction, the global demand is rising quickly. . . . The imminent retirement of the baby-boomers means that companies will lose large numbers of experienced workers in a short s.p.a.ce of time. . . . By one count half the top people at America's 500 leading companies will go in the next five years.16 As Table 1-1 Table 1-1 shows, higher levels of human capital indicated by education levels are strongly a.s.sociated with wages. Workers with advanced professional degrees, for example, earned wages more than five times those of workers who didn't finish high school. Only those with the highest levels of education-those with master's degrees in business administration and those with doctorates in academic scholars.h.i.+p, law, and medicine-averaged higher inflation-adjusted wage gains from 2001 through 2005. Unlike past generations, most workers actually lost rather than gained in real wage income. shows, higher levels of human capital indicated by education levels are strongly a.s.sociated with wages. Workers with advanced professional degrees, for example, earned wages more than five times those of workers who didn't finish high school. Only those with the highest levels of education-those with master's degrees in business administration and those with doctorates in academic scholars.h.i.+p, law, and medicine-averaged higher inflation-adjusted wage gains from 2001 through 2005. Unlike past generations, most workers actually lost rather than gained in real wage income.17 The growth of national and international compet.i.tion, particularly from rising East and South Asia, as well as the Internet and other new media, allows more highly educated "superstars" in business, finance, law, entertainment, sports, and other fields to exercise their specialized talents more widely and remuneratively-often in organizations with worldwide reach. Their wages and other income often rise rapidly. In short, on average, the highly educated and rich get richer. The growth of national and international compet.i.tion, particularly from rising East and South Asia, as well as the Internet and other new media, allows more highly educated "superstars" in business, finance, law, entertainment, sports, and other fields to exercise their specialized talents more widely and remuneratively-often in organizations with worldwide reach. Their wages and other income often rise rapidly. In short, on average, the highly educated and rich get richer.

Table 1-1 AVERAGE WAGES AND INCREASES IN WAGES AMONG AMERICAN WAGE EARNERS AVERAGE WAGES AND INCREASES IN WAGES AMONG AMERICAN WAGE EARNERS SOURCE: Current Population Survey. NOTES: "Some college" includes a.s.sociate arts degrees that, in principle, require two years of college work. "Percent change" is inflation adjusted.

Education Average Wages, 2005 Percent Change, 2001-2005 Didn't finish high school $ 22,274 $ 22,274.

-4.6 -4.6.

High school graduate 31,665 31,665.

-0.2 -0.2.

Some college 38,009 38,009.

-2.5 -2.5.

College graduate 56,740 56,740.

-3.1 -3.1.

Master's 68,302 68,302.

-1.8 -1.8.

Ph.D.

93,593 93,593.

2.9 2.9.

MBA, JD, MD.

119,343 119,343.

10.6 10.6.

Attaining high levels of education and income usually requires strong K-12 preparation.18 Those without advanced mathematics (including calculus) in high school are unlikely to succeed in the hard sciences or engineering. Those without strong verbal skills are unlikely to succeed in law. Without a solid core of basic knowledge and skills, and without the capacity and discipline for hard, focused study built up in the early years, students are unlikely to succeed in later education and in advanced careers (though, of course, there are exceptions such as Oracle's Larry Ellison, Microsoft's Bill Gates, and Apple's Steve Jobs, none of whom graduated from college). Those without advanced mathematics (including calculus) in high school are unlikely to succeed in the hard sciences or engineering. Those without strong verbal skills are unlikely to succeed in law. Without a solid core of basic knowledge and skills, and without the capacity and discipline for hard, focused study built up in the early years, students are unlikely to succeed in later education and in advanced careers (though, of course, there are exceptions such as Oracle's Larry Ellison, Microsoft's Bill Gates, and Apple's Steve Jobs, none of whom graduated from college).

Both individuals and countries with advanced school-acquired human capital have benefited enormously, particularly in the last few decades, as free markets have taken better hold beyond North America and Western Europe. The OECD, for example, reported trends in schooling among its affluent member countries and found that education in East Asia continues rapidly to expand and improve. Two decades ago, South Korea was one of the poorest education performers. Today, its high school students, on average, outscore most of those in other economically advanced countries in mathematics and science.

Among the main industrialized countries, moreover, Korea ranks first in the percentage of high school completers between the ages of 25 and 34-97 percent. The head of the Education Indicators and a.n.a.lysis division of the OECD, Andreas Schleicher, observed, "Tomorrow's high-skilled jobs in innovation and R&D-and the high wages that go with them-will be relocated in Asia unless the European Union and the U.S. make significant progress."19 The consequences of East Asia's higher standards and graduation rates are already substantially apparent. According to The Economist, The Economist, "The real driver of the world economy has been Asia, which has accounted for over half of the world's growth since 2001" [through 2005] in contrast to America's contribution of only 13 percent of the growth. "The real driver of the world economy has been Asia, which has accounted for over half of the world's growth since 2001" [through 2005] in contrast to America's contribution of only 13 percent of the growth.20 The benefits of strong K-12 education systems are not restricted to individual and national income. Higher achievement appears to reduce child and adult mortality21 and to improve health throughout the lifespan. and to improve health throughout the lifespan.22 American Immigrants The American economy has long benefited from the immigration of talented and ambitious people. Today, the highest levels of economically and technologically significant U.S. talent are often found among immigrants rather than American-born workers. Half of the n.o.bel Prizes that went to Americans, for example, were awarded to immigrants; more than half of the Ph.D.s working in America are immigrants; and "a quarter of Silicon Valley companies were started by Indians and Chinese."23 But the United States may not be able to depend on continuing talent immigration. A survey of international firms showed that between 25 and 82 percent planned to increase the amount of research and development they conduct in China and India in automotive engineering, consumer products, information technology, media and entertainment, industrial goods, telecommunications, and financial services.24 Missing their families or seeing opportunity back home, talented immigrants are now more likely to return. Returnees from America, for example, founded 3 in 10 of Taiwan's new companies.25 Lower labor costs in developing countries serve as magnets. Indian college graduates are paid roughly 12 percent of the salaries earned by their American counterparts. Because Indians, on average, also work longer hours than Americans, firms can "buy almost ten Indian brains for the price of one American one." Lower labor costs in developing countries serve as magnets. Indian college graduates are paid roughly 12 percent of the salaries earned by their American counterparts. Because Indians, on average, also work longer hours than Americans, firms can "buy almost ten Indian brains for the price of one American one."26 For these and other reasons, the once dominant old-line U.S. unionized industries have steadily declined. The percentage of employed wage and salary workers who are members of unions declined from 20.1 to 14.0 percent from 1983 to 2005 (although 4 in 10 government workers were unionized in 2005).27 In January 2006 General Motors reported its largest annual loss in more than a decade in the face of compet.i.tion from Asia and falling sales. In a watershed moment in the same year, GM was finally eclipsed by Toyota as the world's number-one automaker after a 40-year decline in its market share. In January 2006 General Motors reported its largest annual loss in more than a decade in the face of compet.i.tion from Asia and falling sales. In a watershed moment in the same year, GM was finally eclipsed by Toyota as the world's number-one automaker after a 40-year decline in its market share.

Similarly, Chrysler was forced to merge with (German) Daimler-Benz, and Bill Ford now faces the prospect of presiding over the bankruptcy of his eponymous company. Long bound by tough union contracts, Ford declared, "From now on, our products will be designed and built to satisfy the customer, not just to fill a factory."28 (Apparently, when all else fails, customers are considered.) (Apparently, when all else fails, customers are considered.) All this goes to show that American citizens face increased international compet.i.tion. They cannot depend on the major industries that formerly led the world to continue without a well-educated workforce. Nor can they depend on immigrants or the present K-12 school system to save the day without effective reforms.

School Choice Because high levels of knowledge and skill increasingly determine individual and national success, Americans and others are keenly interested in changes in schools that may be effective in increasing youngsters' achievement. Opinion polls, discussed in subsequent chapters, show that majorities of adults are concerned about low school standards and student achievement levels. Parents are particularly concerned. Thanks to the spread of "school report cards" and the disclosure required by states and the federal No Child Left Behind Act, more parents than ever before are aware that their children are attending failing schools. This information is changing the terms of the national debate over school reform.

Strong majorities of parents favor programs that enable parents to choose the schools, public or private, that their children attend, with public funding following the student. Parents also favor holding schools accountable for results. A majority of parents say they would send their children to private schools if they could afford the tuition. And, perhaps a sign of growing dissatisfaction with public schools, a large and growing number of parents are homeschooling their children. About 1.2 million children, or 2 percent of age-eligible youngsters, are currently homeschooled.

Discontent with public schools is reflected in most states' legislation and efforts to expand school choice, but these efforts have been fought, usually successfully, by public school boards, teachers' unions, and administrators and their allies. The federal No Child Left Behind Act and new laws in a growing number of states require authorities to give students in repeatedly failing public schools the choice of transferring to other public or private schools. Even though states and districts often evade this requirement, enrollment in voucher, education tax credit, and charter school programs is growing rapidly, though from relatively small numbers, in cities across the country.

Because of the growing interest in school choice and its importance for public policy and the nation's future, this book a.s.sesses a broad range of school choice outcomes, focusing particularly on achievement test performance, costs, and parental and public opinion. It also brings together research on "market effects," that is, the effects that compet.i.tion from charter schools, voucher programs, and private schools as a whole have on traditional public schools.

This book gives little attention to homeschooling or tax credits for tuition and other expenses, since little rigorous, empirical research is available to a.s.sess their effects. Readers interested in these and related topics may find the following references useful starting points: the history of school choice from ancient to modern times,29 private school choice in foreign countries, private school choice in foreign countries,30 a.n.a.lysis of various forms and degrees of choice, a.n.a.lysis of various forms and degrees of choice,31 and legislative principles for school choice. and legislative principles for school choice. 32 32 Measurable Outcomes A major focus of this book is on standardized achievement tests, even though such tests do not represent the sum of students' knowledge, att.i.tudes, and skills or capture a host of other outcomes expected from education. They are, however, America's and other countries' academic currency. Standardized achievement tests are the most common measure used to a.s.sess school performance across all 50 states and the chief indicator of progress of state legislation and the No Child Left Behind Act. The public supports more extensive test use, wider reporting of results, and accountability for progress.

Early academic test results are reasonably accurate predictors of students' success in later grades, retention in school, and college admission (even to elite universities). No one has shown that high achievement scores deter critical thinking, ethical behavior, or other valuable outcomes; rather the opposite appears to be evident: greater knowledge is likely to help people make better decisions, contribute more to society, and lead desirable lives.

Even so, academic achievement is not the only outcome that may be valuable to all the parties who partic.i.p.ate in the K-12 education process. Some schools are greatly oversubscribed while others sit half empty: Parents, by their choices, are signaling which schools they believe are doing the better job. Similarly, surveys show that parents who send their children to private schools or charter schools are more satisfied than parents who have not made a choice. In free societies, consumer opinion about schools is an important consideration, just as it is in other areas of life.

In addition to achievement and consumer opinion, other measures of school success are reported here when available. These include high school and college graduation rates and students' voluntary charitable activities in school and later adult life. Because of the American problem of low public school cost-effectiveness, the costs of choice schools and traditional public schools are also considered.

Credibility and Selection of Evidence This book sets aside philosophical controversies about school choice and confines itself largely to empirical research on its effects. Some research on this topic is set aside since it does not measure up to modern social science research standards. Opinion research counts for little, for example, unless results are obtained from surveys of large, well-defined populations or large, random samples of them. Expert observers' observations may be subjective and merely confirm presuppositions. The rampant anecdotalism common in many public discussions of school choice cannot be trusted and is ignored here, even though it is often highly influential in both policy and practice.

Perhaps the most difficult problem in evaluating school choice research is estimating causal effects. It is often said, and just as often ignored, in policy discussions that correlation does not mean causation. The research selected for discussion in this book is largely confined to several types regarded as scientific in the applied fields such as medicine, epidemiology, agriculture, engineering, psychology, and increasingly in education and the social sciences. With ill.u.s.trations, these may be simply and nontechnically defined as follows: * "Randomized field trials," the gold standard of causality, compare the academic achievement and other measurable outcomes of admitted applicants to an oversubscribed voucher program or charter school with those of unadmitted applicants who attended the traditional public school. Since whether any applicant is admitted or not is determined by lottery, any "statistically significant" difference between the two groups of students is most likely attributable to the effectiveness of the "treatment," in this case the type of school chosen, rather than chance. * "Randomized field trials," the gold standard of causality, compare the academic achievement and other measurable outcomes of admitted applicants to an oversubscribed voucher program or charter school with those of unadmitted applicants who attended the traditional public school. Since whether any applicant is admitted or not is determined by lottery, any "statistically significant" difference between the two groups of students is most likely attributable to the effectiveness of the "treatment," in this case the type of school chosen, rather than chance. * "Quasi-experiments" in which students have not been randomly a.s.signed to schools, but statistical adjustments, usually based on achievement pretests, are made in an effort to remove preexisting differences among students before they enrolled in choice and other schools. In the hope that these adjustments eliminate possible "selection biases," investigators compare the outcome results of students in choice and other schools. * "Quasi-experiments" in which students have not been randomly a.s.signed to schools, but statistical adjustments, usually based on achievement pretests, are made in an effort to remove preexisting differences among students before they enrolled in choice and other schools. In the hope that these adjustments eliminate possible "selection biases," investigators compare the outcome results of students in choice and other schools. * "Correlational a.n.a.lyses" (usually regression a.n.a.lyses), more often employed by economists than other scholars, compare non-randomly-a.s.signed students in two or more groups of schools by statistically controlling for preexisting differences among students including achievement, race, socioeconomic status, and other characteristics. * "Correlational a.n.a.lyses" (usually regression a.n.a.lyses), more often employed by economists than other scholars, compare non-randomly-a.s.signed students in two or more groups of schools by statistically controlling for preexisting differences among students including achievement, race, socioeconomic status, and other characteristics.

These methods of research deserve further discussion here. The social sciences-anthropology, economics, political science, and sociology-are perhaps a half-century behind the applied natural and human sciences in drawing the causal inferences necessary to base policy and practice decisions on scientific conclusions. Random a.s.signment of units to experimental and control or contrast conditions (or treatments) is now generally required in agronomy, medicine, public health, and the rigorous parts of psychology and educational research. Experiments require that the units of a.n.a.lysis be randomly a.s.signed to alternative conditions purely by chance, for example, a coin flip (or, usually, randomly generated numbers). Thus, there is no reason to think that groups initially differ (though this possibility should be investigated rather than a.s.sumed).

The difference in outcomes can be straightforwardly a.s.sessed with a far smaller set of a.s.sumptions than required in nonexperimental research (such as that the groups have indeed been subjected to the specified conditions, which can be investigated). Experimental studies do not require the usually disputable and often ideological questions about specifying, controlling for, and reliably measuring all all other causes. In contrast, social scientists have come to conflicting conclusions from the same data, depending on social scientists' initial causal views, which are often a.s.sumed rather than probed. other causes. In contrast, social scientists have come to conflicting conclusions from the same data, depending on social scientists' initial causal views, which are often a.s.sumed rather than probed.

Because a student's academic achievement prior to moving to a different school often accounts for the bulk of variations in later test scores, studies with measures of achievement gains from one occasion to another (or more than two occasions) are given special weight in this book. Measuring value-added gains or "over-time" growth in achievement during intervening periods increases the sensitivity of the study, reduces possible biases attributable to preexisting differences among students, and thus makes the findings more creditable. Such prior information helps to take into account the powerful influence of families and measures the separate and distinct contribution of the school to a student's achievement.

Other things being equal, "cross-sectional" studies of scores obtained on only one occasion as well as studies that follow grouped rather than individual students' progress are much less credible, and only a few are discussed in this book in cases in which no individual value-added, learning-gain research is available. Once again, with other things being equal, large, randomly chosen samples of large, well-defined populations (preferably a state or nation) allow correspondingly more general causal inferences than small samples within a single community or city.

Social and educational research involves many plausible variables and difficult measurement and sampling problems. Any study is likely to have several flaws. Therefore, scholars in such professions as medicine and psychology weight findings more heavily that replicate, that is, repeat the same findings, preferably many times in a variety of circ.u.mstances. This book describes the methods and findings of particularly rigorous studies, but it also draws on previous summaries of many studies on a number of topics. These are called "reviews of research" since they critically evaluate multiple studies and point out findings that are consistent across them.

Unlike news accounts, they avoid putting exclusive weight on a single study when other studies are also available. They also provide a better indication of whether an effect is broadly found in many circ.u.mstances by several investigators rather than by only a single study that may be flawed in known and unknown ways.

On some topics, studies that do not meet the above standards may shed light on causality. An example is studies of economically advanced and developing countries that rapidly and substantially introduced vouchers, and for which investigators have doc.u.mented ma.s.sive changes in test scores; private school enrollments; and integration of immigrant, special needs, and minority students. In one case discussed, a randomized experimental trial was employed to test the effects of school choice on achievement. Of course, there remains the question of whether such findings can be generalized to the United States and to other countries. In addition to studies of ma.s.sive national changes, systematic observational studies of chosen schools that have had outstanding success may be reasonable to review to see what sets those schools apart from other schools.

This book draws on the largest body of rigorous evidence the author could ama.s.s on school choice and compet.i.tive effects. Admittedly, no single study or piece of evidence is definitive. The situation may be likened to the search for "dose-response" connections between cigarette smoking and lung cancer. Many (regression) studies revealed the correlational linkage between the two after "controlling for" (or statistically taking into account) age, poverty, ethnicity, ambient air pollution, and other things thought to be a.s.sociated with lung cancer.

These correlational findings were consistent with multiple experimental studies of laboratory animals randomly chosen to be exposed and unexposed to large "doses" of tobacco smoke. These multiple, multimethod, multisample studies in wide-ranging conditions enabled a.n.a.lysts to arrive at a decisive conclusion on the otherwise elusive health effects of cigarette smoking. Similarly, given the problems of evaluating social programs, the key consideration adopted here is the robustness, or consistency, of findings in many widely differing circ.u.mstances since any given study is likely to have possibly vitiating flaws.

Caveat Much of the evidence a.s.sembled here concerns averages of achievement test scores and other outcomes for choice and traditional public schools. Even large differences in averages of any two school types, however, should not be taken as indicating that all of the schools of one type are better than all those of another. Undoubtedly, most private and traditional schools either underperform or overperform the averages for their types, and achievement by the two types of schools should be expected to overlap to a greater or lesser extent. Charter schools, for example, are heterogeneous because they were conceived as a way to promote diversity, innovation, and productivity. Some charter schools focus on at-risk or gifted students, others on pregnant teens, and still others are built around a particular educational philosophy or curriculum (such as the academically focused Core Knowledge program).

Despite such variation, statistically significant differences, expressed as averages, between charter and traditional schools are not to be dismissed. It is important if the average student in one type of choice school does better or worse than the average student in another type of school. Since student scores from lowest to highest in the two types of schools contribute to overall averages, they are the most useful, and therefore the most commonly used, indicator of group characteristics and differences among groups.

Still, in some instances, investigators have found distinctive effects on some kinds of students. When these special effects are consistent across studies, they are worth noting.

A Taxonomy of School Choice Table 1-2 shows a simplified breakdown of the possible school governance and funding combinations. Starting in the upper-right category is an example of perhaps the most private form of education, self-schooling, exemplified by the famous autodidact Abraham Lincoln. Second, some 1.25 million youngsters, now schooled at home, represent strong and rising preferences for nongovernment schooling. shows a simplified breakdown of the possible school governance and funding combinations. Starting in the upper-right category is an example of perhaps the most private form of education, self-schooling, exemplified by the famous autodidact Abraham Lincoln. Second, some 1.25 million youngsters, now schooled at home, represent strong and rising preferences for nongovernment schooling.

Table 1-2 CATEGORIES OF SCHOOL FUNDING AND OPERATION CATEGORIES OF SCHOOL FUNDING AND OPERATION [image]

Continuing in the upper-right quadrant, when families think they lack the knowledge, skills, time, or desire to pursue homeschooling, yet want things that public schools do not adequately provide, they may voluntarily choose to pay for private tutoring. East Asia's thriving private tutoring sector is widely credited for at least a part of that region's top scores on international achievement tests, and tutoring services are also popular with East Asian immigrants to the United States, who also tend to be highly successful students.

An interesting example is Korea, which has a $15 billion per year, highly compet.i.tive for-profit hagwon hagwon tutoring industry with extensive brick-and-mortar facilities. Since 2000, however, the firm Megastudy has been offering Web-based educational services and now boasts 2,000 courses. Teachers receive about a quarter of the subscription income to their lectures, which has added up to a payment of $2 million in the case of one charismatic English teacher in a single recent year. tutoring industry with extensive brick-and-mortar facilities. Since 2000, however, the firm Megastudy has been offering Web-based educational services and now boasts 2,000 courses. Teachers receive about a quarter of the subscription income to their lectures, which has added up to a payment of $2 million in the case of one charismatic English teacher in a single recent year.33 Such entrepreneurs.h.i.+p and differential pay are nearly unheard of in Western public and private schools. Indeed, the lack of entrepreneurs.h.i.+p and incentives may be a major reason for the low and declining productivity of K-12 education. Such entrepreneurs.h.i.+p and differential pay are nearly unheard of in Western public and private schools. Indeed, the lack of entrepreneurs.h.i.+p and incentives may be a major reason for the low and declining productivity of K-12 education.

For-profit companies have begun to supply schooling in the United States and other countries.34 A little research on their effectiveness is available, but much of it has been carried out or sponsored by the firms themselves or by teachers' unions, which are often hostile toward for-profit compet.i.tion and choice in general. The research, moreover, does not meet the standards of studies summarized here. For this reason, the effects of self-schooling, homeschooling, and for-profit schooling are not summarized here. A little research on their effectiveness is available, but much of it has been carried out or sponsored by the firms themselves or by teachers' unions, which are often hostile toward for-profit compet.i.tion and choice in general. The research, moreover, does not meet the standards of studies summarized here. For this reason, the effects of self-schooling, homeschooling, and for-profit schooling are not summarized here.

Private schools, both independent and sectarian, are another choice. Many provide both academic and religious instruction. They may be not only more pleasing to parents but also more cost-effective and time efficient than homeschooling since a single teacher may have responsibility for a dozen to three dozen students, freeing parents' time.

As is explained in Chapter 4, we may think of "traditional" public schools as the American way, that is, owned, funded, and operated by the government. But for the first two centuries of American history, nearly all schools were either fully private or locally organized public/private hybrid inst.i.tutions. Citizens in tiny communities paid for and controlled their own schools, including one-room country schools. These schools a.s.similated tens of millions of English- and non-English-speaking immigrants into American society, and they became strong contributors to the economy and society. Tiny school districts in low population density states such as Montana, enrolling between one and few hundred students, still retain highly localized control and typically have among the highest achievement test scores.

Since around 1925, however, consolidation has collapsed roughly 115,000 separate school districts into about 15,000, and average school size has risen by a factor of five. This consolidation has greatly worsened parents' prospects for influencing the boards of their children's schools through school board elections. Political scientists refer to "voter dilution" as the comparatively weak weight of a citizen's vote in a large city compared to one in a village.

Increased centralization, moreover, has produced school boards less well informed about the day-to-day operations of schools. Chicago Public School Board members, for example, could probably not name the more than 500 schools within their purview. Unlike students of yesteryear who went to private or nearly private locally controlled schools, most students today go to schools in large centralized districts, heavily regulated by state and federal government rather than governed by citizens in small school communities surrounding the school.

Charter schools are government-funded and government-supervised inst.i.tutions whose management is directed by private boards. Although they are intended to offer greater parental choice and educational diversity, subsequent chapters doc.u.ment the often heavy regulatory and other burdens imposed on them, such as requirements to hire union employees and administer state tests and per pupil funding that is limited, on average, to about 80 percent of that received by traditional public schools.

Charter boards may appoint their own staffs or hire nonprofit or for-profit management organizations. The extent to which they are freed from conventional public school regulations varies substantially from state to state, but in all cases charter schools are accountable to their chartering authority, often the local school district, state, or state-appointed charter issuer, for student achievement and progress and are subject to closure for poor performance or insufficient enrollment.

Overview of Chapters The remaining chapters focus primarily on the effects of the major types of school choice. Chapter 2 examines charter school studies. Chapter 3 describes research on the effects of vouchers, which are scholars.h.i.+ps that state and local authorities, for-profit and nonprofit organizations, and individuals give directly to families to enable them to send their children to the private schools of their choice. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled in 2002 that parents of public school children, when granted vouchers, can enroll their children in parochial schools, provided that is the parents' choice. Cleveland, Milwaukee, Was.h.i.+ngton, DC, and Florida have publicly funded vouchers. The Utah legislature recently pa.s.sed a statewide voucher bill, which is to eventually serve all K-12 students. Nonpublic organizations and individuals in about 50 cities provide private vouchers, mostly for poor and minority children to attend parochial and nonsectarian independent schools. Parents in several states have sought vouchers as a form of legal relief from repeatedly failing public schools (most recently, in New Jersey and Atlanta, Georgia).

Chapter 4 describes private schools, which generally fall into one of two categories, each of which has several names that are taken as synonymous here: (1) independent or nonsectarian and (2) religious, sectarian, or parochial. While private schools are largely funded and governed privately, they are government regulated to some extent and may in the United States receive small amounts of public funds for such things as transportation, tutoring, and children in poverty. This chapter has little to say about for-profit schools and homeschooling, since research on them does not meet the standards mentioned above. Both types of private schooling are very interesting, nevertheless, and over time may have valuable lessons to teach.

Chapter 5 summarizes the effects of school choice on the achievement of all students within a given geopolitical area (such as a city or state). Although some educators fear compet.i.tors would lure only the best students from underperforming public schools, and lower average achievement in public schools, economists might predict the opposite: that compet.i.tion would enhance performance, efficiency, and consumer satisfaction in public as well as private schools. The ways to test this idea include examining whether the presence of many private schools in a city or county is positively correlated with test scores in traditional public schools, whether countries that rapidly introduce vouchers nationwide see better performance and satisfaction, and whether those countries see increased socioeconomic isolation of students or for-profit firms taking advantage of ill-informed immigrant parents. Such plausible ideas should be put to factual test.

Chapter 6 a.n.a.lyzes recent national public opinion polls about public and private schools and privatization policies as well as school-specific surveys of charter and voucher parents. Since schools are to serve society or the public in general and parents in particular, it would seem reasonable to ask the public and parents. As doc.u.mented in Chapter 6, surveys reveal that the public has strong opinions about school compet.i.tion, funding, and accountability; and parents often have similarly intense opinions about their own children's schools. To gain an understanding of choice and market effects, these views and opinions need to be taken into account.

Chapter 7 gathers the themes from the foregoing chapters, each with its separate sources of evidence. It summarizes general conclusions that seem warranted from the most rigorous research.

2. Charter School Effects

Charter schools have multiplied rapidly in the United States as a result of parental demand and state legislation.1 The first charter schools opened in Minnesota in 1992, and as of 2006 there were roughly 4,000 operating in 40 states and the District of Columbia, enrolling about one million students. This chapter a.s.sembles the most rigorous evidence on six different aspects of charter schools: The first charter schools opened in Minnesota in 1992, and as of 2006 there were roughly 4,000 operating in 40 states and the District of Columbia, enrolling about one million students. This chapter a.s.sembles the most rigorous evidence on six different aspects of charter schools: * their popularity, * their popularity, * their performance relative to traditional government schools, * their performance relative to traditional government schools, * the achievement gains of their students, * the achievement gains of their students, * their effect on achievement in nearby traditional public schools, * their effect on achievement in nearby traditional public schools, * public and parental knowledge and opinions about them, and * public and parental knowledge and opinions about them, and * the regulatory and funding problems faced by the charter school sector. * the regulatory and funding problems faced by the charter school sector.

Charter School Popularity One characteristic of charter schools is not in dispute-parents favor them over traditional public schools. Nationwide, charter school waiting lists contain nearly 9 percent of the number of students currently enrolled in the charter sector. In nine states, the number of students on waiting lists exceeds 20 percent of charter school enrollment. Demand is highest in Ma.s.sachusetts, where waitlists total approximately 55 percent of total charter enrollment, followed by Connecticut, where the figure approaches 50 percent.2 The waiting lists might be even longer if more parents knew about charters. This pent-up demand is due, in part, to the fact that many states cap the total number of charter schools that can be created, limit access on the basis of place of residence, and/or cap the number of students that any school can enroll. The waiting lists might be even longer if more parents knew about charters. This pent-up demand is due, in part, to the fact that many states cap the total number of charter schools that can be created, limit access on the basis of place of residence, and/or cap the number of students that any school can enroll.

In Chicago, for example, charter schools are extraordinarily oversubscribed. A recent Progressive Policy Inst.i.tute study3 showed that all but 1 of the city's 27 charter campuses (some schools have multiple campuses) had more applicants than open s.p.a.ces available. Nine of the campuses had three times as many applicants as seats, and at one school the ratio was 10 to 1. showed that all but 1 of the city's 27 charter campuses (some schools have multiple campuses) had more applicants than open s.p.a.ces available. Nine of the campuses had three times as many applicants as seats, and at one school the ratio was 10 to 1.

Charter schools currently serve 3.6 percent of the Chicago student population, which means that comparatively few students have access to their programs. The demand for alternatives to ineffective traditional public schools isn't difficult to fathom: according to a report by the Illinois Facilities Fund, only 16 percent of the city's high school students and barely one-half of Chicago's elementary students have access to effective schools.4 Although the a.n.a.lysis is not causally rigorous (see subsequent sections for studies that are), the information that may concern parents is that all the charter high schools outperformed the average scores of the traditional public schools that their students would have otherwise attended. Although the a.n.a.lysis is not causally rigorous (see subsequent sections for studies that are), the information that may concern parents is that all the charter high schools outperformed the average scores of the traditional public schools that their students would have otherwise attended.5 Seven of 10 Chicago charter elementary schools improved faster than traditional Chicago public schools. Seven of 10 Chicago charter elementary schools improved faster than traditional Chicago public schools.

One reason charter schools are so popular is that, according to national surveys, the majority of parents would send their children to private schools if the cost of tuition were not an issue.6 African-American parents feel particularly strongly about this; a nationally estimated 89 percent would send their children to private schools if tuition were provided. African-American parents feel particularly strongly about this; a nationally estimated 89 percent would send their children to private schools if tuition were provided.7 Publicly funded charter schools, since they are privately governed and operated, are naturally appealing to parents who prefer semiprivate to state-run schools. Publicly funded charter schools, since they are privately governed and operated, are naturally appealing to parents who prefer semiprivate to state-run schools.