The Future: six drivers of global change Part 128

Kevin Trenberth, "Conceptual Framework for Changes of Extremes of the Hydrological Cycle with Climate Change," Climatic Change 42 (1999): 32739.

36 down through the soil to recharge the underground aquifers

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group 2, "3.4.2 Groundwater," 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch3s3-4-2.html.

37 local temperatures rise higher still

Ben Brabson et al., "Soil Moisture and Predicted Spells of Extreme Temperatures in Britain," Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2004).

38 topsoil becomes more vulnerable to wind erosion

New South Wales Government, "Wind Erosion," March 2, 2011, http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/soildegradation/winder.htm.

39 "not understanding the highly dangerous situation we are in"

Justin Gillis, "A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself," New York Times, June 6, 2011.

40 record one-month price increase for food

Yaneer Bar-Yam and Greg Lindsay, "The Real Reason for Spikes in Food Prices," Reuters, October 25, 2012.

41 record price hikes predicted for 2013

Emma Rowley and Garry White, "World on Track for Record Food Prices 'Within a Year' Due to US Drought," Telegraph, September 23, 2012.

42 More than 65 percent of the U.S. suffered from drought conditions

Michael Pearson and Melissa Abbey, "U.S. Drought Biggest Since 1956, Climate Agency Says," CNN, July 17, 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/16/us/us-drought/index.html.

43 "but it will rain in the non-rainy season"

Gillis, "A Warming Planet Struggles to Feed Itself."

44 "an under-recognition of just how sensitive crops are to heat"

Justin Gillis, "Food Supply Under Strain on a Warming Planet," New York Times, June 4, 2011.

45 that the CO2 fertilization effect is much smaller than predicted

Ibid.

46 weeds appear to benefit from extra CO2 much more

Tim Christopher, "Can Weeds Help Solve the Climate Crisis?," New York Times, June 9, 2008.

47 above a threshold of 84 degrees

Schlenker and Roberts, "Nonlinear Temperature Effects Indicate Severe Damages to U.S. Crop Yields under Climate Change."

48 yield declines plummet further with every degree added

Ibid.

49 disruption of precipitation patterns taking a large toll still

Ibid.

50 same accelerated drops in yields begin when temperatures reach and exceed

Ibid.

51 spring is arriving about a week earlier (and fall about a week later)

Alexander Stine et al., "Changes in the Phase of the Annual Cycle of Surface Temperature," Nature, January 22, 2009.