The Future: six drivers of global change Part 129

52 depriving these regions of water

Thomas Karl et al., Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States (Was.h.i.+ngton, DC: U.S. Climate Change Science Program, 2009), p. 41.

53 nighttime temperatures are at least as important

Christopher Mims, "Why 107-Degree Overnight Temperatures Should Freak You Out," Grist, July 21, 2011, http://grist.org/list/2011-07-21-nyc-mayor-bloomberg-gives-50-million-to-fight-coal-michael-bloom/.

54 increases nighttime temperatures more than daytime temperatures

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "WG1: FAQ 3.3," 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-3-3.html.

55 corresponds with a linear decrease in wheat yields

PV Prasad et al., "Impact of Nighttime Temperature on Physiology and Growth of Spring Wheat," Crop Science 48 (2008): 237280.

56 fell due to climate-related factors by 5.5 percent

David Lobell et al., "Climate Trends and Global Crop Production Since 1980," Science, July 2011.

57 declined by 10 percent with each one degree Celsius

Shaobing Peng et al., "Rice Yields Decline with Higher Night Temperature from Global Warming," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 2004.

58 "downstream effects of changes in crop yield variability"

Noah Diffenbaugh et al., "Global Warming Presents New Challenges for Maize Pest Management," Environmental Research Letters, 2008.

59 aphids and j.a.panese beetles

Orla Demody et al., "Effects of Elevated CO2 and O3 on Leaf Damage and Insect Abundance in a Soybean Agroecosystem," Anthropod-Plant Interactions, July 2008.

60 "That means crop losses may go up in the future"

Union of Concerned Scientists, "Crops, Beetles and Carbon Dioxide," May 11, 2010, http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/impacts/Global-warming-insects.html.

61 deactivating other genes used by soybeans

Jorge Zavala et al., "Anthropogenic Increase in Carbon Dioxide Compromises Plant Defense Against Invasive Insects," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, January 2008.

62 "appear to be helpless against herbivores"

Union of Concerned Scientists, "Crops, Beetles and Carbon Dioxide."

63 "formidable enemies affecting food crops"

CGIAR, "Climate Change Puts Southeast Asia's Billion Dollar Ca.s.sava Industry on High Alert for Pest and Disease Outbreaks," April 13, 2012, http://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/press-releases/climate-change-puts-southeast-asia%E2%80%99s-billion-dollar-ca.s.sava-industry-high-alert.

64 "five additional lifecycles per season"

Shyam S. Yadav et al., Crop Adaptation to Climate Change (Ames, IA: Wiley-Blackwell, 2011), p. 419.

65 pests and plant diseases that expand with warmer temperatures

CGIAR, "Climate Change Puts Southeast Asia's Billion Dollar Ca.s.sava Industry on High Alert for Pest and Disease Outbreaks."

66 "Southeast Asia, Southern China and the ca.s.sava-growing areas of Southern India"

Ibid.

67 "increases in disease spread or incidence with climate warming"

"Global Warming May Spread Diseases," CBS News, February 11, 2009, http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-205_162-512920.html.

68 spread of diseases like dengue fever, West Nile virus, and others

Sonia Shah, "The Spread of New Diseases: The Climate Connection," Yale Environment 360, October 15, 2009; Nicole h.e.l.ler, "The Climate Connection to Dengue Fever," Climate Central, May 12, 2010, http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/the-climate-connection-to-dengue-fever/.