The Future: six drivers of global change Part 132

102 outga.s.sing under way that exceeded what they expected

Shakhova et al., "Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf."

103 methane underneath the Antarctic ice sheet

J. L. Wadham et al., "Potential Methane Reservoirs Beneath Antarctica," Nature, August 2012.

104 losing ma.s.s at an increasing rate

Eric Rignot et al., "Acceleration of the Contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Sea Level Rise," Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011).

105 west Antarctica and Greenland, however, already confirm

Ibid.

106 "It shocked the h.e.l.l out of us"

Personal conversation with Bob Corell.

107 doubling time of the observed loss

James Hansen and Miki Sato, "Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change," in Climate Change: Inferences from Paleoclimate and Regional Aspects, edited by A. Berger, F. Mesinger, and D. ijaki (New York: Springer, 2012).

108 "multi-meter" sea level rise in this century

Ibid.

109 twenty to thirty feet higher than the present-although it took millennia

Aradhna Tripati et al., "Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years," Science, December 2009.

110 50 percent of the world's population

"CO2 Emissions to Cause Catastrophic Rise in Sea Levels, Warns Top NASA Climatologist," Natural News, January 15, 2007.

111 "In much of the developing world, coastal populations are exploding"

National Academies, "Coastal Hazards: Highlights of the National Academies Reports," 2009, http://www.oceanleaders.h.i.+p.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/OHH.pdf.

112 recent study by Deborah Balk

Gordon McGranahan et al., "The Rising Tide: a.s.sessing the Risks of Climate Change and Human Settlements in Low Coastal Elevation Zones," Environment and Urbanization 19 (2007).

113 are already beginning to relocate

Brian Reed, "Preparing for Sea Level Rise, Islanders Leave Home," NPR, February 17, 2011.

114 populations are also at risk in the Philippines and Indonesia

McGranahan et al., "The Rising Tide."

115 The number of climate refugees

Stern, The Economics of Climate Change.

116 more than 200 million people

Neil MacFarquhar, "Refugees Join List of Climate-Change Issues," New York Times, May 28, 2009.

117 mega-deltas of South Asia, Southeast Asia, China, and Egypt

Robert Nicholls, IPCC 2007, "Chapter 6: Coastal and Low-Lying Ecosystems," 2007, http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch6.html.

118 many have moved farther north across the border

Erik German and Solana Pyne, "Disasters Drive Ma.s.s Migration to Dhaka," Global Post, September 8, 2010.