The Future: six drivers of global change Part 131

Brad Plumer, "We're on Pace for 4C of Global Warming. Here's Why That Terrifies the World Bank," Was.h.i.+ngton Post, November 19, 2012.

86 "worst case" future projections are the ones most likely to occur

Brian Vastag, "Warmer Still: Extreme Climate Predictions Appear Most Accurate, Report Says," Was.h.i.+ngton Post, November 8, 2012.

87 49 percent loss

Joanna Zelman and James Gerken, "Arctic Sea Ice Levels. .h.i.t Record Low, Scientists Say We're 'Running Out of Time,' " Huffington Post, September 19, 2012.

88 100 percent loss in as little as a decade

Muyin w.a.n.g and James Overland, "A Sea Ice Free Summer Arctic within 30 Years?," Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009).

89 A Chinese s.h.i.+p, the Snow Dragon, traversed the North Pole to Iceland and back

Jon Viglundson and Alister Doyle, "First Chinese s.h.i.+p Crosses Arctic Ocean Amid Record Melt," Reuters, August 17, 2012.

90 so that computer-driven trades can be executed more quickly

Christopher Mims, "How Climate Change Is Making the Internet Faster," Grist, March 29, 2012, http://grist.org/list/how-climate-change-is-making-the-internet-faster/.

91 Arctic Ocean, which until now have been protected by the ice

Ivan s.e.m.e.niuk, "Scientists Call for No-Fis.h.i.+ng Zone in Arctic Waters," Nature News Blog, April 23, 2012, http://blogs.nature.com/news/2012/04/scientists-call-for-no-fis.h.i.+n-zone-in-arctic-waters.html.

92 movement of military a.s.sets into the region

"Arctic Climate Change Opening Region to New Military Activity," a.s.sociated Press, April 16, 2012.

93 new drilling opportunities

"Sh.e.l.l Starts Preparatory Drilling for Offsh.o.r.e Oil Well off Alaska," CNN, September 9, 2012, http://articles.cnn.com/2012-09-09/us/us_arctic-oil_1_sea-ice-beaufort-sea-ice-data-center.

94 consequences of an accidental wellhead blowout

Jim Kollewe and Terry Macalister, "Arctic Oil Rush Will Ruin Ecosystem, Warns Lloyd's of London," Guardian, April 12, 2012.

95 oil in the Arctic Ocean posed unacceptable ecological risks

Guy Chazan, "Total Warns Against Oil Drilling in Arctic," Financial Times, September 25, 2012.

96 enough sunlight was penetrating to the ocean below

Kevin Arrigo et al., "Ma.s.sive Phytoplankton Blooms Under Arctic Sea Ice," Science, June 15, 2012.

97 consequences for the location and pattern

Jennifer Francis and Stephen Vavrus, "Evidence Linking Arctic Amplification to Extreme Weather in Mid-Lat.i.tudes," Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012).

98 perhaps beyond

Petr Chylek et al., "Arctic Air Temperature Change Amplification and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation," Geophysical Research Letters 36 (2009).

99 Microbes turn the carbon into CO2 or methane

Natalia Shakhova et al., "Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf," Science, March 5, 2010.

100 shallow frozen lakes and ponds surrounding the Arctic

David Archer, "Methane Hydrate Stability and Anthropogenic Climate Change," Biogeosciences 4 (2007).

101 the heat absorption by the water

Katey Walter Anthony et al., "Geologic Methane Seeps Along Boundaries of Arctic Permafrost Thaw and Melting Glaciers," Nature Geoscience 5 (June 2012).