The Future: six drivers of global change Part 48

CIA, The World Factbook, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html.

6 some have already preemptively labeled it the "G2"

C. Fred Bergsten, "Two's Company," Foreign Affairs, September/October 2009.

7 there were episodic warnings that American power was waning

Josef Joffe, "Declinism's Fifth Wave," American Interest, January/February 2012; Samuel P. Huntington, "The U.S.-Decline or Renewal?," Foreign Affairs, Winter 1988/1989; Victor Davis Hanson, "Beware the Boom in American 'Declinism,' " CBS News, November 14, 2011, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-57324071/beware-the-boom-in-american-declinism/.

8 the U.S. was in danger of quickly falling

Joffe, "Declinism's Fifth Wave"; Huntington, "The U.S.-Decline or Renewal?"; Victor Hanson, "Beware the Boom in American 'Declinism.' "

9 1940s to roughly 25 percent in the early 1970s

Stephen M. Walt, "The End of the American Era," National Interest, October 25, 2011; Robert Kagan, "Not Fade Away," New Republic, January 11, 2012.

10 remained at that same level for the last forty years

Kagan, "Not Fade Away."

11 largely at the expense of Europe, not of the United States

Ibid.

12 when it first became the world's largest economy

Charles Kenny, "China vs. the U.S.: The Case for Second Place," BloombergBusinessweek, October 13, 2011.

13 suffered casualties 100 times greater than those of the United States

Irina t.i.tova, "Medvedev Orders Precise Soviet WWII Death Toll," a.s.sociated Press, January 27, 2009; Anne Leland, Mari-Jana Oboroceanu, Congressional Research Service, "American War and Military Operations Casualties: Lists and Statistics," February 2010, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf.

14 Stalin's 1939 pact with Hitler

"The Day in History: August 23rd, 1939. The Hitler-Stalin Pact," History.com, 2012.

15 which formalized the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency

"Beyond Bretton Woods 2," Economist, November 4, 2010.

16 which later evolved into the Common Market and the European Union

European Commission, "Treaty Establis.h.i.+ng the European Coal and Steel Community, ECSC Treaty," October 15, 2010, http://europa.eu/legislation_summaries/inst.i.tutional_affairs/treaties/treaties_ecsc_en.htm.

17 "the father of the United Nations"

Cordell Hull Foundation, "Cordell Hull Biography," http://www.cordellhull.org/english/About_Us/Biography.asp.

18 "when goods cross borders, armies do not"

Jill Lerner, "Free Trade's Champion," Atlanta Business Chronicle, February 13, 2006.

19 "the end of history"

Francis f.u.kuyama, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Harper Perennial, 1993).

20 three waves of democracy that spread throughout the world

U.S. Department of State, Bureau of International Information Programs, "Democracy's Third Wave," http://www.4uth.gov.ua/usa/english/politics/whatsdem/whatdm13.htm.

21 aftermath of the American Revolution, produced twenty-nine democracies

Ibid.