The Future: six drivers of global change Part 59

Bulletin of the Pan-American Union 38, nos. 24449 (1914), p. 79.

190 in spite of U.S. superiority in conventional and nuclear weaponry

Richard Clarke, "China's Cybera.s.sault on America," Wall Street Journal, June 15, 2011.

191 more than on any other program besides Social Security

John Mueller, "Think Again: Nuclear Weapons," Foreign Policy no. 177 (January/February 2010); Peter Pa.s.sell, "The Flimsy Accounting in Nuclear Weapons Decisions," New York Times, July 9, 1998.

192 President Barack Obama reversed U.S. policy four years ago

"A Treaty on Conventional Arms," editorial, New York Times, July 9, 2012.

193 some of which end up being trafficked in black markets

C. J. Chivers, "Small Arms, Big Problems," Foreign Affairs 90, no. 1 (January/February 2011): 11021; Richard F. Grimmett, Congressional Research Service, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 20032010," September 22, 2011, http://fpc.state.gov/doc.u.ments/organization/174196.pdf.

194 warned the United States about the "military industrial complex"

Sam Roberts, "In Archive, New Light on Evolution of Eisenhower Speech," New York Times, December 11, 2010.

195 all of the military weapons sold to countries around the world originate in the United States

Grimmett, "Conventional Arms Transfers to Developing Nations, 20032010."

196 countries with the potential to build nuclear bombs

Polly M. Holdorf, "Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century," Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2010, http://csis.org/files/publication/110916_Holdorf.pdf.

197 could over time result in the ability to project intercontinental power

Graham Allison, "Nuclear Disorder," Foreign Affairs 89, no. 1 (January/February 2010): 7485.

198 many believe it is capable of selling nuclear weapons components

William J. Broad, James Glanz, and David E. Sanger, "Iran Fortifies Its a.r.s.enal with the Aid of North Korea," New York Times, November 29, 2010.

199 "correlation between high levels of development and stable democracy"

Francis f.u.kuyama, "The Future of History: Can Liberal Democracy Survive the Decline of the Middle Cla.s.s?," Foreign Affairs 91, no. 1 (January/February 2012).

200 will reach almost five billion people by 2030

European Strategy and Policy a.n.a.lysis System, Global Trends 2030-Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World, http://www.iss.europa.eu/uploads/media/ESPAS_report_01.pdf.

201 "economic and social rights and, increasingly, environmental issues"

Ibid.

CHAPTER 4: OUTGROWTH.

1 "the personal distribution of income" or "a variety of costs that must be recognized"

Simon Kuznets, National Income 19291932, Report to the U.S. Senate, 73rd Congress, 2nd Session (Was.h.i.+ngton, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1934), pp. 56.

2 three billion people in just the next seventeen years

Homi Kharas, OECD Development Center, "The Emerging Middle Cla.s.s in Developing Countries," January 2010, www.oecd.org/dataoecd/54/62/44798225.pdf.

3 standards that are more common in the wealthiest nations

Ibid.

4 exceeding the rate of growth in the number of people in the world

Jeremy Grantham, "Time to Wake Up: Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever," GMO Quarterly Letter, April 2011.