The Future: six drivers of global change Part 60

5 "furnished by the arts and manufactures to be debarred the use of them"

"Letter from Thomas Jefferson to George Was.h.i.+ngton, 15 March 1784," Library of Virginia, http://www.lva.virginia.gov/lib-edu/education/psd/nation/gwtj.htm.

6 general public's happiness or sense of well-being

Inst.i.tute for Studies in Happiness, Economy and Society, interview with Lester Brown, November 7, 2011, http://ishesorg/en/interview/itv02_01html.

7 increases in consumption do not enhance a sense of well-being

Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, "High Income Improves Evaluation of Life but Not Emotional Well-Being," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, September 7, 2010, http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/08/27/1011492107.abstract.

8 a dangerous "planetary scale 'tipping point' "

Anthony Barnosky et al., "Approaching a State s.h.i.+ft in Earth's Biosphere," Nature, June 7, 2012.

9 "It's either got to be deflated gently, or it's going to burst"

Justin Gillis, "Are We Nearing a Planetary Boundary?," New York Times, Green blog, June 6, 2012, http://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/06/are-we-nearing-a-planetary-boundary/.

10 high levels in 2008 and again in 2011

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, "FAO Initiative on Soaring Food Prices," http://www.fao.org/isfp/en/; Annie Lowrey, "Experts Issue a Warning as Food Prices Shoot Up," New York Times, September 4, 2012.

11 political upheavals struck several countries

Jack Farchy and Gregory Meyer, "World Braced for New Food Crisis," Financial Times, July 19, 2012; Evan Fraser and Andrew Rimas, "The Psychology of Food Riots," Foreign Affairs, January 30, 2011.

12 northern China, India, and the Western United States

Li Jiao, "Water Shortages Loom as Northern China's Aquifers Are Sucked Dry," Science, June 18, 2010; "Groundwater Depletion Rate Accelerating Worldwide," ScienceDaily, September 23, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100923142503.htm.

13 countries where 50 percent of the world's people live

Lester Brown, Earth Policy Inst.i.tute, Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization (New York: Norton, 2008), http://www.earth-policy.org/images/uploads/book_files/pb3book.pdf.

14 depressing crop yields in several important food-growing regions

John Vidal, "Soil Erosion Threatens to Leave Earth Hungry," Guardian, December 14, 2010.

15 surged simultaneously in the last eleven years

Grantham, "Time to Wake Up."

16 increases larger than those that accompanied either World War I or II

Ibid.

17 the danger that we may soon reach "peak everything"

Ibid.

18 have been at least three times faster than those in the industrial world

Ibid.

19 world's iron ore, coal, pigs, steel, and lead-and roughly 40 percent

Ibid.; Scott Neuman, "World Starts to Worry as Chinese Economy Hiccups," NPR News, December 2, 2011, http://www.npr.org/2011/12/02/143048898/world-starts-to-worry-as-chinese-economy-hiccups; presentation by Robert Zoellick, World Bank Spring Meetings 2012, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/NEWS/Resources/RBZ-SM12-for-Print-FINAL.pdf.

20 being produced each year are now made in China

Charles Riley, "Obama Hits China with Trade Complaint," CNN Money, September 17, 2012, http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/17/news/economy/obama-china-trade-autos/index.html.

21 automobiles in China than in its home country