The Future: six drivers of global change Part 61

Alisa Priddle, "GM's Big Plans for China Includes More Cadillac Models," USA Today, April 25, 2012.

22 250 million to slightly over one billion in 2013

"One Billion Vehicles Now Cruise the Planet," Discovery News, August 18, 2011, http://news.discovery.com/autos/one-billion-cars-cruise-planet-110818.html.

23 double again in the next thirty years

ExxonMobil, "The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040," 2012, http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/files/news_pub_eo.pdf.

24 "All of the net growth"

International Energy Agency, "World Energy Outlook," 2011.

25 countries may be slowing, and in some cases may have peaked

See, for example, U.S. Energy Information Administration, press release, "EIA examines alternate scenarios for the future of U.S. energy," June 25, 2012, http://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press361.cfm, and "U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2011," August 14, 2012, http://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/carbon/.

26 world's population of cars and trucks would be 5.5 billion

Justin Lahart, "What If the Rest of World Had as Many Cars as U.S.?," Wall Street Journal blog, November 12, 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/11/12/number-of-the-week-what-if-rest-of-world-had-as-many-cars-as-u-s/.

27 U.S. oil production may soon edge back slightly above the 1970 peak

Ronald D. White and Tiffany Hsu, "U.S. to Become World's Largest Oil Producer by 2020, Report Says," Los Angeles Times, November 13, 2012.

28 the Arab members of OPEC implemented the first oil embargo

U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian, "OPEC Oil Embargo, 19731974," 2012, http://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/OPEC.

29 China and other emerging markets portend further significant increases

International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics, 2011, http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/key_world_energy_stats-1.pdf.

30 China's coal imports have already increased

Kevin Jianjun Tu, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Policy Outlook, "Understanding China's Rising Coal Imports," February 2012.

31 and will double again by 2015

Rebekah Kebede and Michael Taylor, "China Coal Imports to Double in 2015, India Close Behind," Reuters, May 30, 2011.

32 increase in both coal and oil consumption through the next two decades

International Energy Agency, "World Energy Outlook," 2011.

33 to exploit the newly discovered abundance of deep shale gas

Chrystia Freeland, "The Coming Oil Boom," New York Times, August 9, 2012.

34 At current levels of growth

International Energy Agency, "World Energy Outlook," 2011.

35 seems to have peaked more than thirty years ago

Grantham, "Time to Wake Up."

36 more expensive unconventional onsh.o.r.e sources

Ibid.

37 unforgiving and environmentally fragile Arctic Ocean

Guy Chazan, "Total Warns Against Oil Drilling in Arctic," Financial Times, September 25, 2012.

38 more expensive oil than the world has enjoyed in the past