The Future: six drivers of global change Part 70

Ibid.

172 to an astonis.h.i.+ng 3.6 billion, by the end of this century

David E. Bloom, "Africa's Daunting Challenges," New York Times, May 5, 2011.

173 fertility rate in scores of less developed countries-the majority of them in Africa

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, "World Population to Reach 10 Billion by 2100 If Fertility in All Countries Converges to Replacement Level."

174 management knowledge and technology available to women

Malcolm Potts and Martha Campbell, "The Myth of 9 Billion," Foreign Policy, May 9, 2011; Justin Gillis and Celia W. Dugger, "U.N. Forecasts 10.1 Billion People by Century's End," New York Times, May 4, 2011.

175 lowest level since the Great Depression

Bonnie Kavousi, "Birth Rate Plunges, Projected to Reach Lowest Level in Decades," Huffington Post, July 26, 2012.

176 creation of social conditions that can and do have an impact on population

T. Paul Shultz, Yale Economic Growth Center, "Fertility and Income," October 2005, www.econ.yale.edu/~pschultz/cdp925.pdf.

177 thirteen of the fourteen are in sub-Saharan Africa

Bloom, "Africa's Daunting Challenge."

178 ability of girls to become literate and to obtain a good education

United Nations, Report of the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, September 513, 1994, http://www.un.org/popin/icpd/conference/offeng/poa.html.

179 about family size and other issues

Ibid.

180 how many children they wish to have and the s.p.a.cing

Ibid.

181 "the most powerful contraceptive"

Ibid.

182 including 98 percent of s.e.xually active Catholic women

Nicholas D. Kristof, "Beyond Pelvic Politics," New York Times, February 11, 2012.

183 where thirty-nine out of the fifty-five African countries have high levels of fertility

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, "World Population to Reach 10 Billion by 2100 If Fertility in All Countries Converges to Replacement Level."

184 population will triple in the balance of this century

Ibid.

185 2.5 children during their childbearing years

Bloom, "Africa's Daunting Challenge."

186 average is almost 4.5 children per woman

Ibid.

187 leading to disruptive and unsustainable population growth

Ibid.

188 by the end of the century to an estimated 129 million