The Economic Aspect of Geology Part 6

CHAPTER IV

MINERAL RESOURCES--SOME GENERAL QUANt.i.tATIVE CONSIDERATIONS

Of the 1,500 known mineral species, perhaps 200 figure in commerce as mineral resources.

For the mineral substances used commercially, the term "mineral" is used in this chapter with a broad significance to cover any or all of the materials from which the needed elements are extracted,--whether these materials be single minerals or groups of minerals; whether they be rocks or ores; whether they be liquid or solid.

The following figures are generalizations based on the miscellaneous information available. The purpose is to indicate the general perspective rather than the detail which would be necessary for precise statement.

WORLD ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF MINERALS IN SHORT TONS

Exclusive of water, but inclusive of petroleum, the world's annual output of mineral resources amounts to two billions of tons. This figure refers to the crude mineral as it comes from the ground and not to the mineral in its concentrated form.

Of this total extraction, coal amounts to nearly 70 per cent, stone and clay 10 per cent, iron ore about 9 per cent, petroleum 4 per cent, copper ore 3 per cent, and all the remaining minerals const.i.tute less than 6 per cent.

If spread out on the surface in a uniform ma.s.s with an estimated average density based on relative proportions of the crude minerals, this annual production would cover a square mile to a depth of 2,300 feet.

Of the total annual production 85 per cent comes from countries bordering the North Atlantic basin; 75 per cent is accounted for by the United States, England, and Germany; the United States has 39 per cent of the total, England 18 per cent, and Germany 18 per cent. By continents, Europe accounts for nearly 51 per cent, North America for nearly 42 per cent, Asia for nearly 4 per cent, and the remaining continents for nearly 4 per cent. The United States mineral production in recent years has been about 900,000,000 tons.

According to the United States census of 1920, nearly half of all the establishments or businesses engaged in quarrying or mining operations in this country are operating in oil and gas.

Of the crude materials extracted from the ground perhaps 10 per cent, including gold, silver, copper, lead, zinc, nickel, and other ores, are concentrated mainly at the mine, with the result that this fraction of the tonnage in large part does not travel beyond the mine. About 90 per cent of the total production, therefore, figures largely in the transportation of mineral resources.

It is estimated that roughly two-thirds of the annual world production is used or smelted within the countries of origin, the remaining one-third being exported. Of the minerals moving internationally, coal and iron const.i.tute 90 per cent of the tonnage.

The metal smelting capacity of the world in terms of yearly production of crude metal is estimated at nearly 100,000,000 short tons. Of this amount about 80 per cent is located in the United States, England, and Germany. The United States alone has over half of the total. Of the oil-refining capacity the United States controls nearly 70 per cent.

One of the significant features of the situation above summarized is the concentration of production and smelting in a comparatively few places in the world. This statement applies with even more force to the individual mineral commodities.

Water may be regarded as a mineral resource in so far as it is utilized as a commodity for drinking, was.h.i.+ng, power, irrigation, and other industrial uses. For purposes of navigation and drainage, or as a deterrent in excavation, it would probably not be so cla.s.sed. While it is not easy to define the limits of water's use as a mineral resource, it is clear that even with a narrow interpretation the total tonnage extracted from the earth as a mineral resource exceeds in amount all other mineral resources combined.

WORLD ANNUAL PRODUCTION OF MINERALS IN TERMS OF VALUE

In terms of value, mineral resources appear in different perspective.

The annual world value of mineral production, exclusive of water, is approximately $9,000,000,000. This figure is obtained by dividing the annual value of the United States output of each of the princ.i.p.al minerals by the percentage which the United States output const.i.tutes in the world output, and adding the figures thus obtained. The values here used are mainly selling prices at the mines. It is impossible to reduce the figures absolutely to the value of the mineral as it comes from the ground; there are always some items of transportation included. This method of figuring is of course only the roughest approximation; the values as obtained in the United States cannot be accurately exterpolated for the rest of the world because of locally varying conditions. However, the figures will serve for rough comparative purposes.

Of this total value coal represents roughly 61 per cent, petroleum 12 per cent, iron 6 per cent, copper 5 per cent, and gold 3 per cent.

In terms of value, about 25 per cent of the world's mineral production is available for export beyond the countries of origin. Of this exportable surplus the United States has about 40 per cent, consisting princ.i.p.ally of coal, copper, and formerly petroleum.

The value of the United States annual mineral production in recent years has been from about $3,500,000,000 to $5,500,000,000. Annual imports of mineral products into the United States have averaged recently in the general vicinity of $450,000,000, the larger items being copper, tin, fertilizers, petroleum, gems and precious stones, manganese, nickel, and tungsten.

Again the perspective is changed when the value of water resources is considered. As a physiologically indispensable resource, the value of water in one sense is infinite. There is no way of putting an accurate value on the total annual output used for drinking and domestic purposes,--although even here some notion of the magnitude of the figures involved may be obtained by considering the average per capita cost of water in cities where figures are kept, and multiplying this into the world population. This calculation would not imply that any such amount is actually paid for water, because the local use of springs, wells, and streams can hardly be figured on a cash basis; but, if human effort the world over in securing the necessary water is about as efficient as in the average American city, the figures would indicate the total money equivalent of this effort.

SIGNIFICANCE OF GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION OF MINERAL PRODUCTION

The remarkable concentration of the world's mining and smelting around the North Atlantic basin, indicated by the foregoing figures, does not mean that nature has concentrated the mineral deposits here to this extent. It is an expression rather of the localized application of energy to mineral resources by the people of this part of the world. The application of the same amount of energy in other parts of the world would essentially change the distribution of current mineral production.

The controlling factor is not the amount of minerals present in the ground; this is known to be large in other parts of the world and more will be found when necessary. Controlling factors must be looked for in historical, ethnological, and environmental conditions. This subject is further discussed in the chapters on the several resources, and particularly in relation to iron and steel.

THE INCREASING RATE OF PRODUCTION

The extraction of mineral resources on the huge scale above indicated is of comparatively recent date.

From 1880 to the end of 1918 the value of the annual mineral production of the United States has increased from $367,000,000 to more than $5,500,000,000, or nearly fifteen times; measured in another way, it has increased from a little over $7 per capita to more than $52.[10]

More coal has been mined in the United States since 1905 than in all the preceding history of the country. More iron ore has been mined since 1906 than in all the preceding history. The gold production of the United States practically started with the California gold rush in 1849. The great South African gold production began in 1888. Production of diamonds in South Africa began about 1869. The large use of all fertilizer minerals is of comparatively recent date. The world's oil production is greater now each year than it was for any ten years preceding 1891, and more oil has come out of the ground since 1908 than in all the preceding history of the world. The use of bauxite on a large scale as aluminum ore dated practically from the introduction of patented electrolytic methods of reduction in 1889.

In one sense the world has just entered on a gigantic experiment in the use of earth materials.

The most striking feature of this experiment relates to the vast acquisition of power indicated by the accelerating rate of production and consumption of the energy resources--coal, oil, and gas (and water power). Since 1890 the per capita consumption of coal in the United States has trebled and the per capita consumption of oil has become five times as great as it was. If the power from these sources used annually in recent years be translated roughly into man power, it appears that every man, woman, and child in the United States has potential control of the equivalent of thirty laborers,--as against seven in 1890. Energy is being released on a scale never before approximated, with consequences which we can yet hardly ascertain and appraise. This consideration cannot but raise the question as to the ability of modern civilization to control and coodinate the dynamic factors in the situation.

CAPITAL VALUE OF WORLD MINERAL RESERVES

It is impossible to deduce accurately the capital value of mineral resources from values of annual output, but again some approximation may be made. The profit on the extraction of mineral resources on the whole, considering the cost of exploration, is probably no greater than in other industries (p. 330). If we a.s.sume a 6 per cent return, which perhaps is somewhere near the world-wide standard of interest rate for money, and capitalize the value of the world's annual output at this rate, we obtain a world capital value for mineral resources, exclusive of water, of 150 billions of dollars. This a.s.sumes an indefinitely long life for reserves. This a.s.sumption may need some qualifications, but it is the writer's view (Chapter XVII) that it is justified for a sufficiently long period to substantiate the above method of calculation.

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 2. Commercial (financial) control of the mineral resources of the world.]

[Ill.u.s.tration: FIG. 3. Political (territorial) control of the mineral resources of the world.]

POLITICAL AND COMMERCIAL CONTROL OF MINERAL RESOURCES

The occurrence of a mineral resource within a country does not necessarily mean control by that particular political unit. A citizen of the United States may own a mineral resource in South America.

Commercial control of this sort was demonstrated during the war to be of more far-reaching significance than had been supposed, and it became necessary to ascertain, not only the output of the different countries, but the commercial control of this output. Investigation of this subject for twenty-three leading commodities shows that the political and commercial control are by no means the same. These are partly summarized in the accompanying graphs from Spurr.[11] It is to be noted that the graphs show the control of many commodities as it existed in 1913, the last normal year before the war. Changes during and since the war have of course largely altered the situation for certain commodities, notably for iron, coal, and potash. These developments are summarized in the discussion of the individual resources. It is also to be noted that the commercial or financial control of the world's minerals, under the influence of the fostering and protective policies of certain governments discussed in Chapter XVIII, is at present in a state of flux. Considerable changes are taking place today and are to be looked for in the future.

RESERVES OF MINERAL RESOURCES

Annual production figures are only to a very partial extent an indication of the distribution of the great reserves of mineral resources. For instance, there are enormous reserves of coal in China which are not yet utilized to any large extent. The minerals of South America and Africa are in a very early stage of development. The total world reserves will of course not be known until exploration and development of the world's resources are complete--a time which will probably never come. Figures of reserves represent only our present partial state of knowledge and are likely to be considerably modified in the future. Furthermore, the quant.i.tative accuracy of knowledge of reserves is so variable in different parts of the world that it is almost impossible to make up world figures which have any great validity. There are, however, certain broad facts ascertainable.

Every country in the globe is deficient in supplies of some minerals.

The United States is better off than any other country, but still lacks many mineral commodities (see pp. 396-399.) No single continent has sufficient reserves of all mineral commodities.

For the world, however, it may be stated with reasonable certainty that the reserves of the princ.i.p.al minerals are now known to be ample with the exception of those of oil, tin, and perhaps gold and silver. By _ample_ we mean sufficient to give no cause for worry for the next few decades. For many mineral commodities the amounts now actually in sight will not last long, but the possibilities of extension and discovery are so great that a long future availability of these commodities can be counted upon with reasonable safety.

The present shortages in oil, tin, and other minerals mentioned may be only temporary. There is a large part of the world still to be explored, and the present reserves merely mark a stage in this exploration.

Nevertheless, the ratio of reserves and discovery on the one hand to accelerated use on the other gives cause for much concern. Looking forward to the future, the problem of mineral reserves in general is not one of the possible ultimate amount which the earth may contain--presumably in no case is this deficient--but of the success with which the resource may be found and developed to keep up with the rapid acceleration of demand. In the chapter on conservation the suggestion is made that future difficulties are more likely to arise from failure to coodinate the dynamic factors of supply and demand, than from absolute shortage of material in the earth.

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